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Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK

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Listed:
  • Jérôme Creel

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Francesco Saraceno

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Paola Veroni

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on growth, and more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model of the British economy that takes into account long run factors such as public debt accumulation. We find that in such a long run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP growth; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic that was limited to a short run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2007. "Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK," Sciences Po publications 2007-13, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2009. "Petit manuel de stratégies de sortie de crise. Comment rebondir pour éviter l'enlisement ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 335-381.
    2. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Fiscal Discipline as a Social Norm: The European Stability Pact," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(6), pages 1143-1168, December.
    3. Iancu, Aurel & Olteanu, Dan, 2015. "Fiscal Consolidation by Austerity and EU Surveillance Policies," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 151209, National Institute of Economic Research.
    4. repec:idb:idbbks:356 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Philip Arestis & John McCombie, 2009. "On The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy As An Instrument Of Macroeconomic Policy," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 77-79, March.
    6. Frédéric Marty, 2007. "Partenariats public-privé, règles de discipline budgétaire, comptabilité patrimoniale et stratégies de hors bilan," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-29, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. Philip Arestis, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Is Still an Effective Instrument of Macroeconomic Policy," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(2), pages 143-156, June.
    8. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mostafa Amir, Sabbih, 2017. "An Assessment of the Efficacy of Delivering the Annual Development Program in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 84668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Guillermo Perry & Luis Servén & Rodrigo Suescún, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth : Prudence or Abstinence," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6818, September.
    11. Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "Fiscal policy in developing countries : a framework and some questions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4365, The World Bank.
    12. KPEMOUA, Palakiyèm, 2016. "La Dette Exterieure Handicape T’Elle La Croissance Economique Du Togo ?
      [Is External Debt A Brake On Togo’S Economic Growth?]
      ," MPRA Paper 77403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2017.
    13. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; golden rule of public finance; Structural VAR; Public Investment; UK Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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