Fiscal policy in developing countries : a framework and some questions
This paper surveys fiscal policy in developing countries from the point of view of long-run growth. The first section reviews existing methodologies to estimate the effects of fiscal policy shocks and of systematic fiscal policy, with time series or with cross-sectional methods, and their applicability to developing countries. The second section surveys optimal fiscal policy in developing countries, by considering the role of the intertemporal government budget, and sustainability and solvency. It also reviews the fuzzy debate on"fiscal space"and"macroeconomic space"- and the usefulness (or lack thereof) of these terms for policy analysis. The third section asks what theory tells us about the optimal cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing countries. It shows that it very much depends on the assumptions about the interactions between credit market imperfections at the individual, firms, or government level, and on the supply of external funds to the country. Different sets of assumptions lead to different implications about optimal cyclical behavior. The available evidence on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy, and possible reasons for the observed prevalence of a procyclical behavior in developing countries, is also reviewed. If one agrees that fiscal policy is indeed less countercyclical than we think is optimal, the issue is how to correct the problem. One obvious question is why government do not self-insure, i.e. why they do not accumulate assets in upturns and decumulate them in downturns. This leads to the analysis of fiscal rules and stabilization funds, in the fourth section. The last section concludes with what the author considers important research and policy questions in each part.
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005.
"When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fay, Marianne & Yepes, Tito, 2003. "Investing in infrastructure : what is needed from 2000 to 2010?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3102, The World Bank.
- Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
- Kamps, Christophe, 2004. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1224, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Nigel A Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2007. "Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK," Sciences Po publications 2007-13, Sciences Po.
- Jérôme Creel & Paola Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK," Working Papers hal-00972843, HAL.
- Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a Difference in the UK ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Finn, Mary G, 1998. "Cyclical Effects of Government's Employment and Goods Purchases," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 635-657, August.
- Haughwout, Andrew F., 2002. "Public infrastructure investments, productivity and welfare in fixed geographic areas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 405-428, March.
- Andrew F. Haughwout, 2000. "Public infrastructure investments, productivity and welfare in fixed geographic areas," Staff Reports 104, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Deep Habits," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 195-218.
- Ravn, Morten O & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Deep Habits," CEPR Discussion Papers 4269, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Deep Habits," NBER Working Papers 10261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2004. "Deep Habits," 2004 Meeting Papers 208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Araújo, Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos, 2006. "On the economic and fiscal effects of infrastructure investment in Brazil," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 613, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- John A. Tatom, 1991. "Should government spending on capital goods be raised?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-15.
- Peter Perkins & Johann Fedderke & John Luiz, 2005. "An Analysis Of Economic Infrastructure Investment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(2), pages 211-228, 06.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
- Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 271, Econometric Society.
- Marina Halac & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Distributional effects of crises : the role of financial transfers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3173, The World Bank.
- Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)