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Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire? Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques

  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE)

  • Bruno Ducoudré
  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (OFCE)

Selon la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques (NAK), la politique budgétaire de stabilisation n’a aucun effet favorable sur l’activité. D’une part, les gouvernements utiliseraient la politique budgétaire à mauvais escient, à des fins électoralistes et non à des fins de régulation ; les déficits publics seraient généralement trop élevés, conduisant à une trop forte accumulation de dette publique. D’autre part, les déficits publics seraient nuisibles en induisant une hausse des taux d’intérêt, en provoquant une baisse de la demande privée (puisque les agents anticipent les impôts qu’ils devront payer demain) et une baisse de l’offre (en raison de l’anticipation des effets néfastes des impôts futurs). La seule stratégie macroéconomique efficace en Europe consisterait à baisser les dépenses publiques, ce qui permettrait une baisse de la fiscalité, qui provoquerait une hausse de l’offre et de la demande. Les périodes de consolidation budgétaire (c’est-à-dire de réduction des déficits publics obtenue principalement par baisse des dépenses), qui conduisent les agents à anticiper un niveau durablement plus faible d’imposition, auraient des effets favorables sur l’activité. Cette thèse est dominante dans les milieux européens, tant communautaires qu’universitaires. Notre article comprend deux parties. La première présente, de manière critique, les modèles théoriques de la NAK en discutant les différents canaux de transmission (consommation, investissement, taux d’intérêt) et les différentes hypothèses (situation conjoncturelle de l’économie, anticipation de la politique budgétaire, utilité des dépenses publiques). Elle montre que les effets anti-keynésiens ne peuvent apparaître que dans des cas très particuliers. La deuxième analyse les résultats empiriques de la NAK en distinguant les études économétriques par comportement, les études statistiques, les études de cas, les modèles VAR et les simulations de modèles macroéconomiques. Contrairement aux modèles théoriques, les effets anti-keynésiens semblent jouer surtout par le canal de l’investissement empiriquement. Les effets observés semblent liés à la concomitance de chocs d’offre favorables et de réformes budgétaires : ils ne peuvent être généralisés à la politique budgétaire de régulation. La conclusion tire les implications du débat pour la politique économique.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2005, pp.43-97
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1769
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