Deficits and long-term interest rates: an empirical note
This note examines whether long-term nominal interest rates are cointegrated with budget deficits over the period 1959 to 1990. A key finding of this note is that long-term rates are cointegrated with deficits if a one-year ahead inflation forecast series is used to measure long-term expected inflation. However, the evidence favoring cointegration between deficits and interest rates weakens and almost disappears when inflation forecasts over longer horizons (2 to 4 years) are used. This result indicates that a one-year ahead inflation forecast series does not adequately measure long-term expected inflation. Hence, the link found between deficits and long-term rates using one-year inflation forecast series is spurious.
|Date of creation:||1992|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.richmondfed.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/ Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1969. "Commodity Price Expectations and the Interest Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 127-140.
- Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:92-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (William Perkins)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.