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The 'Expansionary Fiscal Contraction' Hypothesis: A Neo-Keynesian Analysis

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  • Barry, Frank
  • Devereux, Michael B

Abstract

It has recently been argued that several fiscal contractions can, through their impact on expectations, lead to growth in consumption, investment, and employment. Since such contractions typically occur because adjustment has been delayed due to fear of aggravating unemployment, the authors examine the hypothesis in a model with wage/price rigidities. The New Classical features of the model, however, allow expectational effects to be taken fully into account. While consumption and investment may rise, the authors find that employment is in all cases likely to fall; this leads them to believe that the so-called 'German view' is overoptimistic. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Barry, Frank & Devereux, Michael B, 1995. "The 'Expansionary Fiscal Contraction' Hypothesis: A Neo-Keynesian Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 249-264, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:47:y:1995:i:2:p:249-64
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.
    2. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    3. Francesco Saraceno, 2018. "The End of the Consensus? The Economic Crisis and the Crisis of Macroeconomics," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 319-334.
    4. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard & Richter, Christian, 2005. "The European economy at the cross roads: Structural reforms, fiscal constraints, and the Lisbon Agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-250, June.
    5. Briotti, Maria Gabriella, 2004. "Fiscal adjustment between 1991 and 2002: stylised facts and policy implications," Occasional Paper Series 9, European Central Bank.
    6. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
    7. Jerome Creel, 1998. "L'assainissement budgétaire au Danemark entre 1983 et 1986 : l'anti-mythe (in French)," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    8. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    9. Jim Malley & Hassan Molana, 2002. "Efficiency Wages, Unemployment and Macroeconomic Policy," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 126, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    10. Gianluigi Giorgioni & Ken Holden, 2003. "Ricardian equivalence, expansionary fiscal contraction and the stock market: a VECM approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1435-1443.
    11. Woon Gyu Choi & Michael B. Devereux, 2006. "Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-8.
    12. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Post-Print halshs-02492309, HAL.
    13. Bergman, Michael, 2000. "The 'Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis' and Uncertainty About the Permanence of Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers 2000:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    14. Barry, Frank, 2009. "Social Partnership, Competitiveness and Exit from Fiscal Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14.
    15. Franck Barry, 2013. "The Knowledge Economy, Economic Transformations and ICT: Regional Dynamics in the Deployment Phase. Case study: Southern and Eastern Ireland," JRC Working Papers JRC83549, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    16. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. Murphy, R. & Palan, R., 2015. "Why the UK’s Fiscal Charter is Doomed to Fail: An analysis of Austerity Economics during the First and the Second Cameron Governments," CITYPERC Working Paper Series 2015/03, Department of International Politics, City University London.
    18. Niamh Hardiman, 2013. "Rethinking the political economy of fiscal consolidation in two recessions in Ireland," Working Papers 201316, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    19. Luigi Mittone & Matteo Tomaselli, 2019. "Economic Growth and Public Debt: An Experimental Approach in Search of a Confidence Channel," DEM Working Papers 2019/18, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.
    21. McCarthy, F. Desmond, 2001. "Social policy and macroeconomics : the Irish experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2736, The World Bank.
    22. António Afonso, 2007. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: part of conventional wisdom?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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