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The Dynamics of Low Pay Employment in Australia

  • Cai, Lixin

Using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, this study shows that the largest proportion of low pay spells originated from higher pay; only a small proportion were from non-employment or recent graduates. While the majority of low pay spells transitioned to higher pay, a significant proportion ended up with non-employment. The multivariate analysis shows that workers who entered low pay from higher pay also have a higher hazard rate of transitioning to higher pay; and those who entered low pay from non-employment are more likely to return to non-employment. Union members, public sector jobs and working in medium to large size firms increase the hazard rate of transitioning to higher pay, while immigrants from non-English speaking countries and workers with health problems have a lower hazard rate of moving into higher pay. There is some evidence that the longer a worker is in low paid employment, the less likely they are to transition to higher pay.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50521/1/MPRA_paper_50521.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50521.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50521
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  1. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schank, Thorsten & Schnabel, Claus, 2009. "Low-wage employment versus unemployment: which one provides better prospects for women?," Discussion Papers 65, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
  2. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
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  4. Baker, Michael & Melino, Angelo, 2000. "Duration dependence and nonparametric heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 357-393, June.
  5. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Health status and labour force participation: evidence from Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 241-261.
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  8. Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2002. " Do the 'Working Poor' Stay Poor? An Analysis of Low Pay Transitions in Italy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 87-110, May.
  9. Victoria Prowse, 2012. "Modeling Employment Dynamics With State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 411-431, April.
  10. Lixin Cai & C. Jeffrey Waddoups, 2012. "Unobserved Heterogeneity, Job Training and the Employer Size–Wage Effect in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 45(2), pages 158-175, 06.
  11. Sloane, P. J. & Theodossiou, I., . "An Econometric Analysis of Low Pay Earnings Mobility," Working Papers 98-05, Department of Economics, University of Aberdeen.
  12. Lixin Cai & C. Jeffrey Waddoups, 2009. "Union Wage Effects in Australia: Evidence from Panel Data," Working Papers 0914, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  13. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," NBER Working Papers 0979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Mark Wooden & Simon Freidin & Nicole Watson, 2002. "The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA)Survey: Wave 1," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(3), pages 339-348.
  16. Blank, Rebecca M., 1989. "Analyzing the length of welfare spells," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 245-273, August.
  17. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
  18. Yin King Fok & Sung-Hee Jeon & Roger Wilkins, 2009. "Does Part-Time Employment Help or Hinder Lone Mothers Movements into Full-Time Employment?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n25, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  19. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Wang-Sheng Lee & Mark Wooden, 2010. "Low-Paid Employment and Unemployment Dynamics in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(272), pages 28-48, 03.
  20. Lixin Cai, 2007. "The Relationship between Health and Labour Force Participation: Evidence from a Panel Data Simultaneous Equation Model," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n01, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  21. Lixin Cai & Amy Y. C. Liu, 2011. "Public–Private Sector Wage Gap in Australia: Variation along the Distribution," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 362-390, 06.
  22. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2008. "Estimating low pay transition probabilities accounting for endogenous selection mechanisms," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(2), pages 165-186.
  23. Dolton, Peter J & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 1995. "Leaving Teaching in the UK: A Duration Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 431-44, March.
  24. Daniel Perkins & Rosanna Scuttella, 2008. "Improving Employment Retention and Advancement of Low-Paid Workers," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(1), pages 97-114, March.
  25. Ian Watson, 2008. "Low Paid Jobs and Unemployment: Churning in the Australian Labour Market, 2001 to 2006," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(1), pages 71-96, March.
  26. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1123-1167.
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