IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Optimal versus realized bank credit risk and monetary policy

  • Manthos D. Delis
  • Yiannis Karavias

Standard banking theory suggests that there exists an optimal level of credit risk that yields maximum bank profit. We identify the optimal level of risk-weighted assets that maximizes banks’ returns in the full sample of US banks over the period 1996–2011. We find that this optimal level is cyclical, being higher than the realized credit risk in relatively stable periods with high profit opportunities for banks but quickly decreasing below the realized in periods of turmoil. We place this cyclicality into the nexus between bank risk and monetary policy. We show that a contractionary monetary policy in stable periods, where the optimal credit risk is higher than the realized credit risk, increases the gap between them. An increase in this gap also comes as a result of an expansionary monetary policy in bad economic periods, where the realized risk is higher than the optimal risk.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/research/groups/grangercentre/documents/13-03.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics in its series Discussion Papers with number 13/03.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:not:notgts:13/03
Contact details of provider: Postal:
School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD

Phone: (44) 0115 951 5620
Fax: (0115) 951 4159
Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/research/groups/grangercentre/index.aspx

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
  2. Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Mannthos & Iosifidi, Maria, 2012. "Bank market power and monetary policy transmission," MPRA Paper 49206, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Berger, Allen N. & Hancock, Diana & Humphrey, David B., 1993. "Bank efficiency derived from the profit function," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 317-347, April.
  4. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2012. "Provisioning rules and bank lending: A theoretical model," Post-Print hal-01098957, HAL.
  5. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2010. "Macroeconomic factors and micro-level bank risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 1996. "Competition for Deposits, Fragility, and Insurance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 184-216, April.
  7. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2013. "“Leaning against the wind” and the timing of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 179-194.
  8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  9. Leonardo Gambacorta & Federico M. Signoretti, 2013. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind? An analysis based on a DSGE model with banking," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 921, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2012. "Excessive bank risk taking and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1457, European Central Bank.
  11. Goddard, John & Liu, Hong & Molyneux, Philip & Wilson, John O.S., 2011. "The persistence of bank profit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2881-2890, November.
  12. John, Kose & Saunders, Anthony & Senbet, Lemma W, 2000. "A Theory of Bank Regulation and Management Compensation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 95-125.
  13. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  14. Joseph Hughes & Loretta Mester, 1992. "Evidence on the Objectives of Bank Managers," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 94-15, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  15. Davies, Richard & Haldane, Andrew G. & Nielsen, Mette & Pezzini, Silvia, 2014. "Measuring the costs of short-termism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 16-25.
  16. Flannery, Mark J & Sorescu, Sorin M, 1996. " Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1347-77, September.
  17. Ioannidou, V. & Ongena, S. & Peydro, J.L., 2009. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing : Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Discussion Paper 2009-31 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  18. Valencia, Fabián, 2014. "Monetary policy, bank leverage, and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 20-38.
  19. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
  20. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2013. "Capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-324.
  21. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
  22. Barakova, Irina & Palvia, Ajay, 2014. "Do banks’ internal Basel risk estimates reflect risk?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 167-179.
  23. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  24. Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana & Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip, 2013. "Off-balance sheet exposures and banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 673-681.
  25. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "The risk of financial intermediaries," Research Discussion Papers 18/2014, Bank of Finland.
  26. Francesco Vallascas & Jens Hagendorff, 2013. "The Risk Sensitivity of Capital Requirements: Evidence from an International Sample of Large Banks," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1947-1988.
  27. Berger, Allen N. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhou, Mingming, 2010. "The effects of focus versus diversification on bank performance: Evidence from Chinese banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1417-1435, July.
  28. Kaufman, George G., 2014. "Too big to fail in banking: What does it mean?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-223.
  29. DellʼAriccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2014. "Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 65-99.
  30. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
  31. Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "Bank risk-taking, securitization, supervision and low interest rates: Evidence from the euro area and the U.S. lending standards," Working Paper Series 1248, European Central Bank.
  32. Viral Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2007. "Too many to fail - an analysis of time-inconsistency in bank closure policies," Bank of England working papers 319, Bank of England.
  33. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
  34. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 1998. "Bank Capitalization And Cost: Evidence Of Scale Economies In Risk Management And Signaling," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 314-325, May.
  35. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  36. Granger, Clive W. J., 2003. "Time Series Analysis, Cointegration, and Applications," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
  37. Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2013. "The Manipulation of Basel Risk-Weights," CEPR Discussion Papers 9494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  39. Claudio Borio & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: a missing link in the transmission mechanism?," BIS Working Papers 268, Bank for International Settlements.
  40. Duran, Miguel A. & Lozano-Vivas, Ana, 2014. "Risk shifting in the US banking system: An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 64-74.
  41. Livne, Gilad & Markarian, Garen & Mironov, Maxim, 2013. "Investment horizon, risk, and compensation in the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3669-3680.
  42. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  43. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  44. Kim, Daesik & Santomero, Anthony M, 1988. " Risk in Banking and Capital Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1219-33, December.
  45. Delis, Manthos D & Hasan, Iftekhar & Mylonidis, Nikolaos, 2011. "The risk-taking channel of monetary policy in the USA: Evidence from micro-level data," MPRA Paper 34084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  47. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-23, March.
  48. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  49. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
  50. Delis, Manthos D & Staikouras, Panagiotis & Tsoumas, Chris, 2013. "Enforcement actions and bank behavior," MPRA Paper 43557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:not:notgts:13/03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.