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Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model

Author

Listed:
  • Suzi Kerr

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Alex Olssen

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

Rural land use is important for New Zealand’s economic and environmental outcomes. Using a dynamic econometric model and recent New Zealand data, we estimate the response of land use to changing economic returns as proxied by relevant commodity prices. Because New Zealand is small, export prices are credibly exogenous. We show that land use responses can be slow. Our result implies that policy-induced land-use change is likely to be slow or costly.

Suggested Citation

  • Suzi Kerr & Alex Olssen, 2012. "Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model," Working Papers 12-06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_06
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    File URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/12_06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Winchester, Niven & White, Dominic, 2022. "The Climate PoLicy ANalysis (C-PLAN) Model, Version 1.0," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Miroslava Rajcaniova & d'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2014. "Bioenergy and global land-use change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(26), pages 3163-3179, September.
    3. repec:ner:leuven:urn:hdl:123456789/413548 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thomas Carver & Patrick Dawson & Suzi Kerr, 2017. "Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme: Lessons from New Zealand," Working Papers 17_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    5. Suzi Kerr, 2016. "Agricultural Emissions Mitigation in New Zealand: Answers to Questions from the Parliamentary Commisioner for the Environment," Working Papers 16_16, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Schilling, Chris & Kaye-Blake, William & Post, Elizabeth & Rains, Scott, 2012. "The importance of farmer behaviour: an application of Desktop MAS, a multi-agent system model for rural New Zealand communities," 2012 Conference, August 31, 2012, Nelson, New Zealand 136070, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Miroslava Rajcaniova & d'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2014. "Bioenergy and global land-use change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(26), pages 3163-3179, September.
    8. Indrakumar Vetharaniam & Levente Timar & C. Jill Stanley & Karin Müller & Carlo van den Dijssel & Brent Clothier, 2022. "Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Location Suitability and Spatial Footprint of Apple and Kiwifruit," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-27, September.
    9. Bill Kaye-Blake & Chris Schilling & Elizabeth Post, 2014. "Validation of an Agricultural MAS for Southland, New Zealand," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(4), pages 1-5.
    10. Zack Dorner & Dean Hyslop, 2014. "Modelling Changing Rural Land Use in New Zealand 1997 to 2008 Using a Multinomial Logit Approach," Working Papers 14_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    11. Daigneault, Adam & Greenhalgh, Suzie & Samarasinghe, Oshadhi, 2014. "A response to Doole and Marsh (2013) article: methodological limitations in the evaluation of policies to reduce nitrate leaching from New Zealand agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(2), April.
    12. repec:lic:licosd:33613 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Simon Anastasiadis & Suzi Kerr & Wei Zhang & Corey Allan & William Power, 2014. "Land Use in Rural New Zealand: Spatial Land Use, Land-use Change, and Model Validation," Working Papers 14_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    14. Levente Timar & Suzi Kerr, 2014. "Land-use Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the LURNZ Model," Working Papers 14_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    15. Suzi Kerr & Simon Anastasiadis & Alex Olssen & William Power & Levente Tímár & Wei Zhang, 2012. "Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand," Working Papers 12_10, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    16. Allan, Corey & Kerr, Suzi, 2013. "Examining Patterns in and Drivers of Rural Land Values," 2013 Conference, August 28-30, 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand 160191, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    17. Allan, Corey & Kerr, Suzi & Owen, Sally, 2020. "Over-valued or over-looked? A theoretical and empirical investigation of agricultural land values against profitability in Aotearoa New Zealand," Working Paper Series 9129, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Levente Timar, 2016. "Does money grow on trees? Mitigation under climate policy in a heterogeneous sheep-beef sector," Working Papers 16_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land use; New Zealand; time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

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