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Modelling Changing Rural Land Use in New Zealand 1997 to 2008 Using a Multinomial Logit Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zack Dorner

    () (Monash University)

  • Dean Hyslop

    () (Victoria University of Wellington)

Abstract

Rural land use in New Zealand is an important driver of economic activity and has clear implications for the environment, including for biodiversity, climate change emissions and water quality. The spatial distribution and aggregate shares of rural land use is always changing, but change occurs slowly. To better understand the drivers of rural land use change, this paper addresses three questions using the popular multinomial logit modelling approach. First, do recent commodity prices have any predictive power on land use conversions? Second, is recently sold land more likely to change use? Third, does land which is marginal between uses have identifiable characteristics? The data used consists of the New Zealand Landcover Database version 3 (LCDB3), with observations in 1997, 2002 and 2008; 6 year average profitability data for dairy, sheep and beef and forestry; QVNZ land sales data; and I control for land quality and Maori tenure. In answering the first and third questions, I evaluate the predictive power of a spatially explicit land use share multinomial logit model, estimated from 2002 cross-sectional variation. To supplement the land use share multinomial logit for questions one and three, and to address question two, I use a land use transition multinomial logit, estimating the likelihood of transition from a single starting land use between 1997 and 2002, similar to Lubowski et al. (2008). Finally, I compare the two modelling approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Zack Dorner & Dean Hyslop, 2014. "Modelling Changing Rural Land Use in New Zealand 1997 to 2008 Using a Multinomial Logit Approach," Working Papers 14_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:14_12
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    File URL: http://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/14_12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, December.
    5. Ruben N. Lubowski & Andrew J. Plantinga & Robert N. Stavins, 2008. "What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 529-550.
    6. Adams, Thomas & Turner, James A., 2012. "An investigation into the effects of an emissions trading scheme on forest management and land use in New Zealand," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 78-90.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manley, Bruce, 2018. "Forecasting the effect of carbon price and log price on the afforestation rate in New Zealand," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 112-120.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    land use; rural; conversion; multinomial logit; land sales; marginal land;

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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