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Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Location Suitability and Spatial Footprint of Apple and Kiwifruit

Author

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  • Indrakumar Vetharaniam

    (The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Hamilton 3214, New Zealand)

  • Levente Timar

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington 6142, New Zealand)

  • C. Jill Stanley

    (The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Clyde 9391, New Zealand)

  • Karin Müller

    (The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Hamilton 3214, New Zealand)

  • Carlo van den Dijssel

    (The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Palmerston North 4410, New Zealand)

  • Brent Clothier

    (The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Palmerston North 4410, New Zealand)

Abstract

The threats and opportunities faced by primary production industries from future climate changes can be adequately prepared for only with the guidance of model projections that can assist the development of robust policy and climate adaptation plans by governments and industries. We used continuous suitability models capable of reflecting incremental changes to project the suitability of locations across New Zealand for cultivating apple and kiwifruit in the mid- and late-century. These projections used future weather data from climate model simulations for two contrasting greenhouse gas (GHG) pathways: stringent GHG mitigation and unabated GHG emissions. To improve the suitability of the modelled temperature data, specifically for use with biologically driven, crop suitability models, we developed new bias-variance adjustments that preserved climate change signals within the data. Preliminary projections of land use across a range of alternative primary industries were obtained from a multinomial logit model incorporating continuous suitability scores as predictors. We refined the preliminary land-use projections by providing them as inputs into a simulation model of land use incorporating other drivers and constraints. This methodology provides a means for projecting future land use and the spatial footprints of primary industries, based on biological and econometric considerations, under different modelled climate change scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Indrakumar Vetharaniam & Levente Timar & C. Jill Stanley & Karin Müller & Carlo van den Dijssel & Brent Clothier, 2022. "Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Location Suitability and Spatial Footprint of Apple and Kiwifruit," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-27, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:10:p:1639-:d:923338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Indrakumar Vetharaniam & Karin Müller & C. Jill Stanley & Carlo van den Dijssel & Levente Timar & Brent Clothier, 2022. "Modelling Continuous Location Suitability Scores and Spatial Footprint of Apple and Kiwifruit in New Zealand," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Tianlin Zhai & Linke Wu & Yuanmeng Chen & Mian Faisal Nazir & Mingyuan Chang & Yuanbo Ma & Enxiang Cai & Guanyu Ding & Chenchen Zhao & Ling Li & Longyang Huang, 2022. "Ecological Compensation in the Context of Carbon Neutrality: A Case Involving Service Production-Transmission and Distribution-Service Consumption," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Quang Chi Truong & Alexis Drogoul & Benoit Gaudou & Patrick Taillandier & Nghi Quang Huynh & Thao Hong Nguyen & Philip Minderhoud & Ha Nguyen Thi Thu & Etienne Espagne, 2023. "An Agent-Based Model for Land-Use Change Adaptation Strategies in the Context of Climate Change and Land Subsidence in the Mekong Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, March.

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