Deforestation in South America's tri-national Paraná Atlantic Forest: Trends and associational factors

South America's Tri-national Paraná Atlantic Forest, an ecological region spanning across the nations of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, is one of the most diverse in the world but also one of the most vulnerable to deforestation. A review of public policy interventions shows all three governments have taken major legislative steps to protect remaining forests, but studies evaluating deforestation trends and associated factors in this region are scarce or non-existent. Here, we make a direct contribution to this knowledge gap by assessing deforestation trends within Paraná Atlantic forests of Argentina's Misiones, Brazil's Paraná, and Paraguay's Alto Paraná between 2000 and 2020. Over this period about 20% of forest cover was lost in Misiones, 13% in Paraná, and 18% in Alto Paraná. The odds of observed deforestation, else constant, showed nuanced associations with proximity to nearest roads, cities, and ports. Higher levels of economic growth were directly associated with deforestation, as were increases in population density over the entire period. Protected area designation between years 2000 and 2020 showed effectiveness in lowering odds of deforestation with heterogeneous associations across countries. Our results reflect associational inferences with estimated deforestation; future research should investigate causal effects of protected designation, and assess its role in avoided degradation and wider socio-economic impacts.