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Yield to Change: Modelling the Land-use Response to Climate-Driven Changes in Pasture Production

Author

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  • Levente Timar

    () (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

In contrast to most economic drivers of land-use change, climate-related drivers display substantial geographic variation. Accounting for this spatial heterogeneity is important in simulations of the land-use response to climate change. I use a discrete choice model to estimate the relationship between pasture yields and rural land use. Land-use predictions from the model respond to climate change through its effects on pasture yields. This econometric model provides the foundation for the development of a new module of the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model, the Yield Change Module. In addition to enabling simulations of overall land-use change under different climate scenarios, the module also draws on the estimation results to allocate land-use change spatially. I employ the Yield Change Module to perform illustrative mid-century and end-of-century simulations of land use in a climate scenario characterised by a high level of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). Yield changes in this scenario lead to an expansion (by nearly 600,000 hectares) of dairy area and a fall (by over 800,000 hectares) of sheep-beef area by the end of the century. The implied rate of land-use change is modest relative to that observed in New Zealand’s recent past

Suggested Citation

  • Levente Timar, 2016. "Yield to Change: Modelling the Land-use Response to Climate-Driven Changes in Pasture Production," Working Papers 16_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:16_15
    as

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    File URL: http://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/16_15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levente Tímár, 2011. "Rural Land Use and Land Tenure in New Zealand," Working Papers 11_13, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Simon Anastasiadis & Suzi Kerr & Wei Zhang & Corey Allan & William Power, 2014. "Land Use in Rural New Zealand: Spatial Land Use, Land-use Change, and Model Validation," Working Papers 14_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    3. Suzi Kerr & Simon Anastasiadis & Alex Olssen & William Power & Levente Tímár & Wei Zhang, 2012. "Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand," Working Papers 12_10, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land use; climate change; pasture production; LURNZ; Yield Change Module;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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