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Openness and Structural Labour Market Reforms: Counterfactuals for Lithuania

Author

Listed:
  • Povilas Lastauskas

    (Bank of Lithuania and Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge)

  • Julius Stakenas

    (Bank of Lithuania)

Abstract

This paper deals with the macroeconomic responses to labour market reforms; something of utmost importance in times of monetary policy reaching its limits to affect real economy. We shed more light on the plausible macroeconomic reactions to the ex ante (planned but not implemented yet) reforms in the labour market, taking a currently proposed Social Model in Lithuania as an example. Not only contributing to the current debate on the efficacy of announced structural reforms, we also add to the literature on policy evaluation by assessing reforms from a global perspective. Omission of an international dimension could lead to seriously biased results on policy effects for any open and small economy. Taking trade connectivity and openness into account, we demonstrate macroeconomic reactions to shocks in unemployment benefits, active labour market policies, and tax wedge on the reforming economy. We contrast the results with the approach when global interdependencies are ignored - still a standard practice. Using a satellite model for the intermediate trade, we link the global framework with the sectoral extensive margin, which changes some of the initial findings. A discussion on counterfactuals, which use both cross-sectional and temporal dimensions to tackle anticipation effects, is also presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakenas, 2016. "Openness and Structural Labour Market Reforms: Counterfactuals for Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
  • Handle: RePEc:lie:dpaper:1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour structural reforms; ex ante policy evaluation; global VAR; social model; spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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