IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jhu/papers/66655.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rounding the corners of the trilemma: A simple framework

Author

Listed:
  • Jeanne, Olivier

    (Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Many emerging market economies use foreign exchange interventions or capital controls at the same time as they float their currencies, a policy mix that is not explained by Mundell’s policy trilemma. This paper presents a simple model that accounts for this fact. In the model, changes in foreign appetite for domestic assets lead to a trade-off between stabilizing the tradable sector and stabilizing the nontradable sector. The model is consistent with a number of stylized facts about the impact of the global financial cycle on emerging market economies, and on the policies used by emerging markets to mitigate this impact. Consistent with Rey’s dilemma thesis, the benefits of using countercyclical capital flow taxes may be substantially larger than the benefits of floating. The paper also discusses the reasons that capital flow taxes are not more popular in practice.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jeanne, Olivier, 2021. "Rounding the corners of the trilemma: A simple framework," Economics Working Paper Archive 66655, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:66655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jhir.library.jhu.edu/handle/1774.2/66655
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "Global financial cycle and liquidity management," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2015. "Rounding the Corners of the Policy Trilemma: Sources of Monetary Policy Autonomy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 33-66, October.
    3. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 205-219.
    5. Ambrogio Cesa‐Bianchi & Luis Felipe Cespedes & Alessandro Rebucci, 2015. "Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 301-335, 03.
    6. John Williamson, 2005. "Curbing the Boom-Bust Cycle: Stabilizing Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa75, October.
    7. Sebastián Fanelli & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions [The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2857-2885.
    8. Zheng Liu & Mark M Spiegel, 2015. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(2), pages 298-324, September.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    10. Olivier Jeanne & Arvind Subramanian & John Williamson, 2012. "Who Needs to Open the Capital Account?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 5119, October.
    11. Davis, J. Scott & Van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 83-100.
    12. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    13. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 403-407, May.
    14. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio, 2016. "Capital controls in Brazil: Effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 163-187.
    15. Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2017. "Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 114-130.
    16. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Liliana Varela, 2021. "Five Facts about the UIP Premium," NBER Working Papers 28923, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
    18. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    19. Stefan Avdjiev & Bryan Hardy & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Luis Servén, 2022. "Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates, and Sovereigns," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 2098-2135.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 2, pages 16-84, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mahvash S Qureshi, 2017. "Managing the Tide: How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows?," IMF Working Papers 2017/069, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Kollmann, Robert, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of nominal exchange rate regimes: new insights into the role of price dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 275-292, March.
    23. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
    24. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    25. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2014. "Dilemma Not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 569-605, November.
    26. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    27. Linde, Jesper & Adrian, Tobias & Erceg, Christopher J. & Zabczyk, Pawel & Zhou, Jianping, 2020. "A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 15065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Nikhil Patel & Paolo Cavllino, 2019. "FX intervention: goals, strategies and tactics," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 25-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Ambrogio Cesa‐Bianchi & Luis Felipe Cespedes & Alessandro Rebucci, 2015. "Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 301-335, March.
    30. Zineddine Alla & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, 2016. "Unconventional Policy Instruments in the New Keynesian Model," IMF Working Papers 2016/058, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Edwards, Sebastian & Garcia, Márcio G (ed.), 2008. "Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226184951, December.
    32. Rebucci, Alessandro & Ma, Chang, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 14186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Dilemma not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," Working Paper 133566, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    34. Mr. Suman S Basu & Ms. Emine Boz & Ms. Gita Gopinath & Mr. Francisco Roch & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2020. "A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," IMF Working Papers 2020/121, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Fabiani, Andrea & Piñeros, Martha López & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Davis, J. Scott & Fujiwara, Ippei & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Wang, Jiao, 2021. "Foreign exchange reserves as a tool for capital account management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 473-488.
    5. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    6. Shang-Jin Wei, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature," Working Papers id:12586, eSocialSciences.
    7. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    8. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    9. Das, Mitali & Ordal, Hailey, 2022. "Macroeconomic stability or financial stability: How are capital controls used? Insights from a new database," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Dash, Pradyumna, 2019. "Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-288.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2016. "International Coordination," NBER Working Papers 21878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chokri Zehri & David McMillan, 2020. "Restrictive policy impacts in emerging economies," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1815979-181, January.
    13. Lu, Dong & Liu, Jialin & Zhou, Hang, 2022. "Global financial conditions, capital flows and the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Chokri Zehri, 2022. "Interaction Effect of Capital Controls and Macroeconomic Policies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(1), pages 15-33, March.
    15. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "The Domestic Impacts And Spillovers Of Capital Controls," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 31-66, October –.
    16. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Narita, Machiko & Rawat, Umang & Sahay, Ratna, 2023. "Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Marcel Fratzscher & Tobias Heidland & Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 852-884, December.
    19. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2018. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality--A Portfolio Balance Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 1-47, May.
    20. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: A Guide for Developing Countries Based on the Recent Literature," ADBI Working Papers 804, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords; Exchange rate regime; capital controls; foreign exchange interventions;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:66655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Humphrey Muturi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dejhuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.