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Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • Mr. Mohammad Rahmati

Abstract

This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce an estimated risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a tendency to relapse into subsequent conflicts even years after the cessation of violence. The empirical results show that domestic factors, including the estimated probability of conflict recurrence, as well as a range of external variables, contribute to post-conflict economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik & Mr. Mohammad Rahmati, 2013. "Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions," IMF Working Papers 2013/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/002
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    2. Полчанов, Андрій Юрійович, 2018. "Методика оцінки фінансового потенціалу держави у подоланні наслідків військових конфліктів // Methodology for assessing the financial potential of the state in overcoming the consequences of military ," Проблеми теорії та методології бухгалтерського обліку, контролю і аналізу // Problems of Theory and Methodology of Accounting, Control and Analysis, Житомирський державний технологічний університет // Zhytomyr State Technological University, vol. 39(1).
    3. Corinne Deléchat & Ejona Fuli & Dafina Mulaj & Gustavo Ramirez & Rui Xu, 2018. "Exiting from Fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Role of Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Institutions," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 271-307, September.

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