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Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

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  • Serhan Cevik

    (International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, NW, Washington DC, 20431, USA.)

  • Mohammad Rahmati

    (Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Street, 1458889694, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the principal determinants of post-conflict economic transitions during the period 1960–2010 using a dynamic panel estimation approach. In addition to demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce a novel measure of conflict recurrence risk, estimated with a logistic regression approach controlling for unobserved fixed effects in a non-linear probability model. The empirical results show that the risk of conflict recurrence is a significant determinant of post-conflict economic performance, even after controlling for a broad set of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional factors.

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  • Serhan Cevik & Mohammad Rahmati, 2015. "Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(4), pages 569-597, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:57:y:2015:i:4:p:569-597
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    2. Полчанов, Андрій Юрійович, 2018. "Методика оцінки фінансового потенціалу держави у подоланні наслідків військових конфліктів // Methodology for assessing the financial potential of the state in overcoming the consequences of military ," Проблеми теорії та методології бухгалтерського обліку, контролю і аналізу // Problems of Theory and Methodology of Accounting, Control and Analysis, Житомирський державний технологічний університет // Zhytomyr State Technological University, vol. 39(1).
    3. Corinne Deléchat & Ejona Fuli & Dafina Mulaj & Gustavo Ramirez & Rui Xu, 2018. "Exiting from Fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Role of Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Institutions," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 271-307, September.

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