Solow Residuals without Capital Stocks
For more than fifty years, the Solow decomposition (Solow 1957) has served as the standard measurement of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in economics and management, yet little is known about its precision, especially when the capital stock is poorly measured. Using synthetic data generated from a prototypical stochastic growth model, we explore the quantitative extent of capital measurement error when the initial condition is unknown to the analyst and when capacity utilization and depreciation are endogenous. We propose two alternative measurements which eliminate capital stocks from the decomposition and significantly outperform the conventional Solow residual, reducing the root mean squared error in simulated data by as much as two-thirds. This improvement is inversely related to the sample size as well as proximity to the steady state. As an application, we compute and compare TFP growth estimates using data from the new and old German federal states.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
- Francesco Caselli, 2004.
"Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences,"
NBER Working Papers
10828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles R. Hulten, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change is Embodied in Capital," NBER Working Papers 3971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2001. "From Reunification to Economic Integration: Productivity and the Labor Market in Eastern Germany," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 1-92.
- Steve Ambler & Alain Paquet, 1992. "Stochastic Depreciation and the Business Cycle Puzzle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 8, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- repec:dgr:kubcen:200654 is not listed on IDEAS
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
- W. Diewert & Alice Nakamura, 2003. "Index Number Concepts, Measures and Decompositions of Productivity Growth," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 127-159, April.
- Thijs Raa & Pierre Mohnen, 2002.
"Neoclassical Growth Accounting and Frontier Analysis: A Synthesis,"
Journal of Productivity Analysis,
Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 111-128, September.
- Ten Raa, T. & Mohnen, P., 2002. "Neoclassical growth accounting and frontier analysis : A synthesis," Other publications TiSEM b3c67537-f899-4cf5-a5cb-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Ten Raa, T. & Mohnen, P., 2000. "Neoclassical Growth Accounting and Frontier Analysis : A Synthesis," Discussion Paper 2000-67, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Ten Raa, T. & Shestalova, V., 2006. "Alternative Measures of Total Factor Productivity Growth," Discussion Paper 2006-54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Fare, Rolf & Shawna Grosskopf & Mary Norris & Zhongyang Zhang, 1994. "Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 66-83, March.
- Hulten, Charles R., 1986. "Productivity change, capacity utilization, and the sources of efficiency growth," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 31-50.
- De Borger, Bruno & Kerstens, Kristiaan, 2000.
" The Malmquist Productivity Index and Plant Capacity Utilization,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 303-10, June.
- DE BORGER, Bruno & KERSTENS, Kristiaan, . "The Malmquist productivity index and plant capacity utilisation," Working Papers 2000020, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Hansen, Gary D., 1985.
"Indivisible labor and the business cycle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-90106 is not listed on IDEAS
- Maddison, Angus, 1992.
" A Long-Run Perspective on Saving,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 181-96.
- George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen & Helga Hessenius, 1991. "East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 1-106.
- Ambler, Steve & Paquet, Alain, 1994. "Stochastic Depreciation and the Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 101-16, February.
- repec:sae:niesru:v:147:y::i:1:p:84-96 is not listed on IDEAS
- Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, 09.
- Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did sunspot cause the Great Depression?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
- Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2006.
"Intangible capital and economic growth,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2006-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- repec:dgr:kubcen:200067 is not listed on IDEAS
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
- Verughese Jacob & Subhash Sharma & Richard Grabowski, 1997. "Capital stock estimates for major sectors and disaggregated manufacturing in selected OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 563-579.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.