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Estimating the Effect of Fertility Decisions on Child Labor and Schooling

We use an econometric model of fertility and children's activities to examine the causal effects of fertility on a child's activities taking the endogeneity of fertility into account. Our specification uses latent factors to allow for unobserved influences on fertility to affect a child's activities. We apply maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques to estimate the parameters of our models. We find that the effect of fertility has a large downward bias in naive models. The effect of fertility on the probability of attending school is twice as large once its endogeneity is taken into account. The effect of fertility on the probability of work changes sign and becomes statistically significant.

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File URL: http://econ.hunter.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/RePEc/papers/HunterEconWP211.pdf
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Paper provided by Hunter College Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College with number 211.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:211
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Web page: http://econ.hunter.cuny.edu/

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  1. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, . "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 86-15, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  2. Jensen, P. & Nielsen, H.S., 1996. "Child Labour or School Attendance? Evidence from Zambia," Papers 96-14, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
  3. Ranjan Ray, 2000. "Analysis of child labour in Peru and Pakistan: A comparative study," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 3-19.
  4. Pushkar Maitra & Ranjan Ray, 2002. "The Joint Estimation of Child Participation in Schooling and Employment: Comparative Evidence from Three Continents," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 41-62.
  5. Gong, X. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1997. "Family Structure and Female Labour Supply in Mexico City," Discussion Paper 1997-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Carrasco, Raquel, 2001. "Binary Choice with Binary Endogenous Regressors in Panel Data: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Female Labor Participation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 385-94, October.
  7. Ravallion, Martin & Wodon, Quentin, 2000. "Does Child Labour Displace Schooling? Evidence on Behavioural Responses to an Enrollment Subsidy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C158-75, March.
  8. Blundell, Richard & Smith, Richard J., 1994. "Coherency and estimation in simultaneous models with censored or qualitative dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 355-373.
  9. Shelly Lundberg & Elaina Rose, 2002. "The Effects Of Sons And Daughters On Men'S Labor Supply And Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 251-268, May.
  10. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
  11. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
  12. repec:dgr:kubcen:1997114 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3tb6j874, University of California Transportation Center.
  14. Edward Vytlacil & James J. Heckman, 2001. "Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 107-111, May.
  15. Moffitt, Robert, 1984. "Profiles of Fertility, Labour Supply and Wages of Married Women: A Complete Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 263-78, April.
  16. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2.
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