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Estimating the Effect of Fertility Decisions on Child Labor and Schooling

We use an econometric model of fertility and children's activities to examine the causal effects of fertility on a child's activities taking the endogeneity of fertility into account. Our specification uses latent factors to allow for unobserved influences on fertility to affect a child's activities. We apply maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques to estimate the parameters of our models. We find that the effect of fertility has a large downward bias in naive models. The effect of fertility on the probability of attending school is twice as large once its endogeneity is taken into account. The effect of fertility on the probability of work changes sign and becomes statistically significant.

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File URL: http://econ.hunter.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/RePEc/papers/HunterEconWP211.pdf
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Paper provided by Hunter College Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College with number 211.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:211
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  1. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
  2. Pushkar Maitra & Ranjan Ray, 2002. "The Joint Estimation of Child Participation in Schooling and Employment: Comparative Evidence from Three Continents," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 41-62.
  3. Shelly Lundberg & Elaina Rose, 1999. "The Effect of Sons and Daughters on Men's Labor Supply and Wages," Working Papers 0033, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  4. Carrasco, Raquel, 2001. "Binary Choice with Binary Endogenous Regressors in Panel Data: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Female Labor Participation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 385-94, October.
  5. Ray, R., 1998. "Analysis of Child Labour in Peru and Pakistan: a Comparative Study," Papers 1998-05, Tasmania - Department of Economics.
  6. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, 1.
  7. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
  8. Jensen, P. & Nielsen, H.S., 1996. "Child Labour or School Attendance? Evidence from Zambia," Papers 96-14, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
  9. Xiaodong Gong & Arthur van Soest, 2002. "Family Structure and Female Labor Supply in Mexico City," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 37(1), pages 163-191.
  10. Blundell, Richard & Smith, Richard J., 1994. "Coherency and estimation in simultaneous models with censored or qualitative dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 355-373.
  11. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
  12. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
  13. Edward Vytlacil & James J. Heckman, 2001. "Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 107-111, May.
  14. Ravallion, Martin & Wodon, Quentin, 1999. "Does child labor displace schooling? - evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2116, The World Bank.
  15. Robert Moffitt, 1984. "Profiles of Fertility, Labour Supply and Wages of Married Women: A Complete Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 263-278.
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