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Estimating the Effect of Fertility Decisions on Child Labour and Schooling

We construct a joint distribution of fertility and children's activities treating the Poisson process generating the number of children as being endogenous in the multinomial logit process generating children's activities using a latent factor structure. Latent factors are incorporated into the equations for number of children and children's activities to allow for unobserved influences on fertility to affect children's activities, thus enabling us to make a distinction between selection on unobservables and selection on observables. We apply maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques to estimate the parameters of our models. We find that the effect of fertility has a large downward bias in naive models. The marginal effect of fertility on child labor and schooling are twice as large when common unobserved heterogeneity in fertility and activity decisions are accounted for.

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Paper provided by Understanding Children's Work (UCW Programme) in its series UCW Working Paper with number 4.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ucw:worpap:4
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  1. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1j6814b3, University of California Transportation Center.
  2. Ravallion, Martin & Wodon, Quentin, 1999. "Does child labor displace schooling? - evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2116, The World Bank.
  3. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
  4. Ray, R., 1998. "Analysis of Child Labour in Peru and Pakistan: a Comparative Study," Papers 1998-05, Tasmania - Department of Economics.
  5. Moffitt, Robert, 1984. "Profiles of Fertility, Labour Supply and Wages of Married Women: A Complete Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 263-78, April.
  6. Shelly Lundberg & Elaina Rose, 1999. "The Effect of Sons and Daughters on Men's Labor Supply and Wages," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0033, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  7. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, March.
  8. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, . "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 86-15, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  9. Gong, Xiaodong & van Soest, Arthur, 2000. "Family Structure and Female Labour Supply in Mexico City," IZA Discussion Papers 214, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Raquel Carrasco, 1999. "Binary Choice with Binary Endogenous Regressors in Panel Data: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Female Labour Participation," Working Papers 1999.3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  11. Maitra, P. & Ray, R., 2000. "The Joint Estimation of Child Participation in Schooling and Employement: Comparative Evidence from Three Continents," Papers 2000-08, Tasmania - Department of Economics.
  12. Edward Vytlacil & James J. Heckman, 2001. "Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 107-111, May.
  13. Jensen, P. & Nielsen, H.S., 1996. "Child Labour or School Attendance? Evidence from Zambia," Papers 96-14, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
  14. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
  15. Blundell, Richard & Smith, Richard J., 1994. "Coherency and estimation in simultaneous models with censored or qualitative dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 355-373.
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