IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01503950.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The long-run impact of monetary policy uncertainty and banking stability on inward FDI in EU countries

Author

Listed:
  • Claudiu Albulescu

    () (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)

  • Adrian Ionescu

    () (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In the present paper, we assess the long-run relationship between FDI inflows and the financial environment in 16 EU countries. For this purpose, we use a cointegration technique for heterogeneous panels and the FMOLS and DOLS estimators, over the period 2001 to 2015. We show that financial conditions are important for FDI inflows. More precisely, the monetary uncertainty, calculated as the difference between the recorded and the forecasted interest rate values, negatively affects the FDI inflows. In addition, the banking stability, measured through different Z-score specifications, positively influences the foreign investment. However, this result is influenced by the way the Z-score is calculated. We further report a positive relationship between the business cycle and the FDI entrance. The robustness analyses based on alternative specifications of monetary uncertainty and banking stability confirm our findings. These results are also supported by a PMG estimation. Therefore, authorities must pay special attention to monetary policy predictability and to banking stability in order to facilitate the investors' access to finance and their investment decision.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudiu Albulescu & Adrian Ionescu, 2017. "The long-run impact of monetary policy uncertainty and banking stability on inward FDI in EU countries," Working Papers hal-01503950, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01503950
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01503950
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01503950/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:fip:fedgin:2016-04-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Davide Castellani & Valentina Meliciani & Loredana Mirra, 2016. "The Determinants of Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Business Services across European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 671-691, April.
    3. Sourafel Girma & Yundan Gong & Holger Görg, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Access to Finance, and Innovation Activity in Chinese Enterprises," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 367-382, June.
    4. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "The effectiveness of the ECB's asset purchase programs of 2009 to 2012," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 45-57.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Nicolae Bogdan Ianc, 2016. "Fiscal Policy, Fdi And Macroeconomic Stabilization," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 18, pages 131-146, December.
    6. John H. Rogers & Bo Sun & Lucas F. Husted, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Uncertainty : The Federal Reserve, January 1985-January 2016," IFDP Notes 2016-04-11-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    8. Eaton Jonathan & Tamura Akiko, 1994. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 478-510, December.
    9. Edison, Hali J. & Levine, Ross & Ricci, Luca & Slok, Torsten, 2002. "International financial integration and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 749-776, November.
    10. Dalila Chenaf-Nicet & Eric Rougier, 2016. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Instability on FDI Flows: A Gravity Estimation of the Impact of Regional Integration in the Case of Euro-Mediterranean Agreements," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 145, pages 66-91.
    11. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    12. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    13. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Lucian Briciu & Sorina Ioana Coroiu, 2010. "Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In Ceecs: The Role Of Financial Stability," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2010, pages 85-96, july.
    14. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
    15. Farayi Gwenhamo, 2011. "Foreign Direct Investment In Zimbabwe: The Role Of Institutional And Macroeconomic Factors," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 211-223, September.
    16. Clausing, Kimberly A, 2000. "Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 190-205, April.
    17. Hines, James R. Jr., 1999. "Lessons From Behavioral Responses to International Taxation," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(2), pages 305-322, June.
    18. Lucas F. Husted & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2016. "Measuring Cross Country Monetary Policy Uncertainty," IFDP Notes 2016-11-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2003. "Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 142-163.
    20. Elif C Arbatli, 2011. "Economic Policies and FDI Inflows to Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/192, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Valerija Botrić & Lorena Škuflić, 2006. "Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 13(2), pages 359-377, July.
    22. Martijn J. Burger & Elena I. Ianchovichina, 2017. "Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 411-432, May.
    23. Peter Egger & Simon Loretz & Michael Pfaffermayr & Hannes Winner, 2009. "Bilateral effective tax rates and foreign direct investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(6), pages 822-849, December.
    24. Haaparanta, Pertti, 1996. "Competition for foreign direct investments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 141-153, December.
    25. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2015. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross‐Section Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, January.
    26. Hines, James R. Jr., 1999. "Lessons from Behavioral Responses to International Taxation," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 2), pages 305-22, June.
    27. Abel E Ezeoha & Nicolette Cattaneo, 2012. "FDI Flows to Sub-Saharan Africa: The Impact of Finance, Institutions, and Natural Resource Endowment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(3), pages 597-632, September.
    28. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries; Global Drivers and Growth Implications," IMF Working Papers 10/132, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Palle S. Andersen & P. Hainaut, 1998. "Foreign direct investment and employment in the industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 61, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.
    31. Dalila Chenaf-Nicet & Eric Rougier, 2016. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Instability on FDI Flows: A Gravity Estimation of the Impact of Regional Integration in the Case of Euro-Mediterranean Agreements," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 145, pages 66-91.
    32. Christian Aubin & Jean-Pierre Berdot & Daniel Goyeau & Jacques Léonard, 2006. "Investissements directs américains et européens dans les PECOs. Quel rôle des effets de change ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 771-792.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; EU countries; FDI inflows; monetary uncertainty; banking stability; Z-score;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01503950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.