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Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand

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  • Stéphanie Souche

    () (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

To be best prepared for tomorrow's cities we need to forecast urban travel demand. To this end, this study calibrates an urban travel demand model, which uses the principal structural variables that have been identified in the literature. It uses a robust econometric method, which has been little applied in the sphere of transportation. The results show that two variables stand out from the others: the user cost of transport - by private car and public transport - and urban density. It is surprising, but explicable with the available data, that the demand functions estimated for a given country are independent from the group of countries to which it belongs.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphanie Souche, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Post-Print halshs-00578019, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00578019
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2009.12.003
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00578019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:1230-:d:141613 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Woods, Lee & Ferguson, Neil S., 2014. "The influence of urban form on car travel following residential relocation: a current and retrospective study in Scottish urban areas," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(1), pages 95-104.
    3. Chiou, Yu-Chiun & Jou, Rong-Chang & Yang, Cheng-Han, 2015. "Factors affecting public transportation usage rate: Geographically weighted regression," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 161-177.
    4. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Urban Transport Pollution: Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," MPRA Paper 53632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lopes, Carlos Eduardo M. & Moita, Rodrigo Menon S., 2013. "Demanda por Meios de Transporte na Grande São Paulo: Uma Análise de Políticas Públicas," Insper Working Papers wpe_316, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    6. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:298-309 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Manel Daldoul & Sami Jarboui & Ahlem Dakhlaoui, 2016. "Public transport demand: dynamic panel model analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 491-505, May.
    8. Setareh Ataian, 2011. "Analyse des dépenses en transport urbain des ménages à Téhéran," Post-Print halshs-00733368, HAL.
    9. Felix Creutzig & Rainer Mühlhoff & Julia Römer, 2012. "One Planet Mobility - Transforming Cities towards Low-Carbon Mobility," Working Papers 1, Department of Climate Change Economics, TU Berlin, revised Feb 2012.

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