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Un exemple d'estimation de la demande de transport urbain

  • Stéphanie Souche

In order to better understand tomorrow?s cities, we need to work on urban transport demand estimation. In this paper, we aim at defining an urban mobility demand model built on the main structural variables currently identified in the literature. By applying it to three Chinese cities, we obtain different evolution scenarios that underline the dominance of the two following variables : average user cost for a trip (in individual cars or public transport) and urban density. Surprisingly enough, the demand estimation functions appear to be independant from the country group variable, though this may be explained by the limited data available. Nevertheless, this application to the Chinese environnement gives us a first empirical result to work on.

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Article provided by Armand Colin in its journal Revue d’Économie Régionale & Urbaine.

Volume (Year): novembre (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 759-779

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Handle: RePEc:cai:rerarc:reru_094_0759
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  14. Alain Bonnafous & Iragaël Joly & Sophie Masson & Romain Petiot, 2003. "Une analyse de la base UITP sur les systèmes de transports urbains de 100 villes du monde," Post-Print halshs-00088778, HAL.
  15. Bresson, Georges & Dargay, Joyce & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2003. "The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 605-627, August.
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