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The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators

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  • Bresson, Georges
  • Dargay, Joyce
  • Madre, Jean-Loup
  • Pirotte, Alain

Abstract

This study analyses the impacts of changes in fares, service supply, income and other factors on the demand for public transport on the basis of panels of English counties and French urban areas. The analysis is based on dynamic econometric models, so that both short- and long-run elasticities are estimated. Conventional approaches (i.e. fixed- and random-effect models) rely on the hypothesis that elasticities are the same for all areas. Having shown that this hypothesis is not valid for these data sets, the heterogeneity amongst areas is accounted for using a random-coefficients approach, and Bayesian shrinkage estimators. Estimated elasticities for France and England are compared, by using a common set of variables, similar time period and a common methodology. The results show a considerable variation in elasticities among areas within each country. The major conclusion is that public transport demand is relatively sensitive to fare changes, so that policy measures aimed at fare reduction (subsidisation) can play a substantial role in encouraging the use of public transport, thus reducing the use of private cars.

Suggested Citation

  • Bresson, Georges & Dargay, Joyce & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2003. "The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 605-627, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:37:y:2003:i:7:p:605-627
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & James M. Griffin & Alain Pirotte, 2003. "Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 795-811, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan U. Becker & Sönke Albers, 2016. "The limits of analyzing service quality data in public transport," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(5), pages 823-842, September.
    2. Souche, Stéphanie, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 127-134, May.
    3. Elisabetta Venezia, 2007. "Factors influencing travellers. mode choices: case study of Bari," SERIES 0018, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Oct 2007.
    4. Stéphanie Souche, 2009. "Un exemple d'estimation de la demande de transport urbain," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(4), pages 759-779.
    5. Hakim Hammadou & Claire Papaix, 2015. "Policy packages for modal shift and CO2 reduction in Lille, France," Working Papers 1501, Chaire Economie du climat.
    6. Philippe Gagnepain & Marc Ivaldi & Catherine Muller-Vibes, 2011. "The Industrial Organization of Competition in Local Bus Services," Chapters,in: A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 32 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Kaushik Deb & Massimo Filippini, 2013. "Public Bus Transport Demand Elasticities in India," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 47(3), pages 419-436, September.
    8. Desiderio Romero-Jordán & José Félix Sanz & Mercedes Burguillo, 2014. "Is it environmentally desirable to encourage public transport through taxes? Evidence for Spanish households," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Rahman, Syed & Balijepalli, Chandra, 2016. "Understanding the determinants of demand for public transport: Evidence from suburban rail operations in five divisions of Indian Railways," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 13-22.
    10. Crôtte, Amado & Noland, Robert B. & Graham, Daniel J., 2009. "Is the Mexico City metro an inferior good?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 40-45, January.
    11. Hensher, David A., 2008. "Empirical approaches to combining revealed and stated preference data: Some recent developments with reference to urban mode choice," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 23-29, January.
    12. Bresson, Georges & Dargay, Joyce & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2004. "Economic and structural determinants of the demand for public transport: an analysis on a panel of French urban areas using shrinkage estimators," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 269-285, May.
    13. Manel Daldoul & Sami Jarboui & Ahlem Dakhlaoui, 2016. "Public transport demand: dynamic panel model analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 491-505, May.
    14. Elisabetta Venezia, 2009. "Determinants of the demand for urban transport: results of a case study," Working Papers 0909, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica.
    15. de Grange, Louis & González, Felipe & Muñoz, Juan Carlos & Troncoso, Rodrigo, 2013. "Aggregate estimation of the price elasticity of demand for public transport in integrated fare systems: The case of Transantiago," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 178-185.
    16. Elisabetta Venezia, 2009. "Determinants of the demand for urban transport: results of a case study," Working Papers 09_9, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica.
    17. Taylor, Brian D & Miller, Douglas & Iseki, Hiroyuki & Fink, Camille, 2008. "Nature and/or nurture? Analyzing the determinants of transit ridership across US urbanized areas," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5w9045hh, University of California Transportation Center.
    18. repec:cec:wpaper:1415 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Wang, Zi-jia & Li, Xiao-hong & Chen, Feng, 2015. "Impact evaluation of a mass transit fare change on demand and revenue utilizing smart card data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 213-224.
    20. Deng, Haopeng & Li, Ye & Li, Wenxiang & Yu, Yuewu, 2016. "Urban transport social needs in China: Quantification with central government transit grant," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 126-139.
    21. Thøgersen, John, 2006. "Understanding repetitive travel mode choices in a stable context: A panel study approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 621-638, October.
    22. Holmgren, Johan, 2007. "Meta-analysis of public transport demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1021-1035, December.
    23. Rye, Tom & Scotney, David, 2004. "The factors influencing future concessionary bus patronage in Scotland and their implications for elsewhere," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 133-140, April.

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