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Estimating multimodal transit ridership with a varying fare structure

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  • Gkritza, Konstantina
  • Karlaftis, Matthew G.
  • Mannering, Fred L.

Abstract

This paper studies public transport demand by estimating a system of equations for multimodal transit systems where different modes may act competitively or cooperatively. Using data from Athens, Greece, we explicitly correct for higher-order serial correlation in the error terms and investigate two, largely overlooked, questions in the transit literature; first, whether a varying fare structure in a multimodal transit system affects demand and, second, what the determinants of ticket versus travelcard sales may be. Model estimation results suggest that the effect of fare type on ridership levels in a multimodal system varies by mode and by relative ticket to travelcard prices. Further, regardless of competition or cooperation between modes, fare increases will have limited effects on ridership, but the magnitude of these effects does depend on the relative ticket to travelcard prices. Finally, incorrectly assuming serial independence for the error terms during model estimation could yield upward or downward biased parameters and hence result in incorrect inferences and policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gkritza, Konstantina & Karlaftis, Matthew G. & Mannering, Fred L., 2011. "Estimating multimodal transit ridership with a varying fare structure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 148-160, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:2:p:148-160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr & Walke, Adam G., 2012. "Border Zone Mass Transit Demand in Brownsville and Laredo," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 51(2).
    2. Karlaftis, Matthew G. & Tsamboulas, Dimitrios, 2012. "Efficiency measurement in public transport: Are findings specification sensitive?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 392-402.
    3. Verbich, David & El-Geneidy, Ahmed, 2017. "Public transit fare structure and social vulnerability in Montreal, Canada," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 43-53.
    4. Lu, Xiao-Shan & Liu, Tian-Liang & Huang, Hai-Jun, 2015. "Pricing and mode choice based on nested logit model with trip-chain costs," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 76-88.
    5. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:689-:d:96956 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Milioti, Christina & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2015. "Modelling spillover effects of public transportation means: An intra-modal GVAR approach for Athens," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.

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