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Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015

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  • Kenneth B. Medlock
  • Ronald Soligo

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of economic development on the demand for private motor vehicles for a panel of 28 countries. Utilising the concept of the user cost of capital and the notion that the demand for cars can become saturated, the authors develop a model of the relationship between economic development and per capita private car ownership. They find that saturation levels vary across countries, and that user costs are a significant factor in the evolution of vehicle stocks. Forecasts are generated for each of the countries in the sample, and the implications for future energy-related issues are discussed. © The London School of Economics and the University of Bath 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth B. Medlock & Ronald Soligo, 2002. "Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 163-188, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:36:y:2002:i:2:p:163-188
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Strand, Jon, 2013. "Political economy aspects of fuel subsidies : a conceptual framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6392, The World Bank.
    2. Garth Heutel & Erich Muehlegger, 2015. "Consumer Learning and Hybrid Vehicle Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(1), pages 125-161, September.
    3. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    4. Souche, Stéphanie, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 127-134, May.
    5. Inghels, Dirk & Dullaert, Wout & Raa, Birger & Walther, Grit, 2016. "Influence of composition, amount and life span of passenger cars on end-of-life vehicles waste in Belgium: A system dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 80-104.
    6. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2010. "Improved technical efficiency and exogenous factors in transportation demand for energy: An application of structural time series analysis to South Korean data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2745-2751.
    7. Deepankar Sinha & Virupaxi Bagodi & Debasri Dey, 2020. "The Supply Chain Disruption Framework Post COVID-19: A System Dynamics Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(4), pages 511-534, November.
    8. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    9. Juan Laborda & María José Moral, 2020. "Automotive Aftermarket Forecast in a Changing World: The Stakeholders’ Perceptions Boost!," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Alejandra Terán Orsini, 2020. "Vehicle fleets path and non-linear ownership elasticity for Bolivia, 2000-2035," Development Research Working Paper Series 04/2020, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    11. Chandra Setiawan, Indra & Indarto, & Deendarlianto,, 2021. "Quantitative analysis of automobile sector in Indonesian automotive roadmap for achieving national oil and CO2 emission reduction targets by 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Hernández-Moreno, Adolfo & Mugica-Álvarez, Violeta, 2013. "Vehicular fleets forecasting to project pollutant emissions: Mexico city metropolitan area case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 189-199.
    13. Kemal Çelik & Erkan Oktay & Muhsin Doğan Ebül & Ömer Özhancı, 2015. "Factors influencing consumers’ light commercial vehicle purchase intention in a developing country," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 148-162, September.
    14. Ingrid Majerová, 2017. "Composite Development Index of Visegrad Group Regions," Working Papers 0045, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.

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