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The Supply Chain Disruption Framework Post COVID-19: A System Dynamics Model

Author

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  • Deepankar Sinha
  • Virupaxi Bagodi
  • Debasri Dey

Abstract

The COVID pandemic seems to have raised the question, ‘whether existing supply chain (SC) disruption philosophies and strategies continue to remain valid?’. This article assesses the differences in the business scenarios pre-and post-COVID. The authors capture the mathematical and operational relationships amongst the relevant factors and propose a System Dynamics (SD) model to carry out the simulations. The approach considers the impact of the force majeure condition, that is, COVID period on individuals’ income, prices and demand of goods, cost of input and supply of finished goods. The results show that earnings may increase demand but, disruption in supplies of raw materials and finished products nullify the effect. On the other hand, even if flow returns to normal, reduced income affects normal goods businesses. JEL Codes: R41

Suggested Citation

  • Deepankar Sinha & Virupaxi Bagodi & Debasri Dey, 2020. "The Supply Chain Disruption Framework Post COVID-19: A System Dynamics Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(4), pages 511-534, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:55:y:2020:i:4:p:511-534
    DOI: 10.1177/0015732520947904
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Weiwei Zhang & Shiyong Liu & Nathaniel Osgood & Hongli Zhu & Ying Qian & Peng Jia, 2023. "Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 207-234, January.
    2. Moumita Basu & Rilina Basu & Ranjanendra Narayan Nag, 2024. "Understanding Pandemic Crisis in a Dependent Economy: A Structuralist Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(4), pages 562-587, November.
    3. Mojtaba Hajian Heidary, 2022. "A system dynamics model of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and foreign direct investment in the global supply chain," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Tonmoy Chatterjee & Soumyananda Dinda, 2022. "Preference Distortion, Information Cost and Comparative Advantage: A Theoretical Quest to Claim Trade Posture in Post-Pandemic Era," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(2), pages 127-147, May.
    5. Kazancoglu, Yigit & Ekinci, Esra & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Sezer, Muruvvet Deniz & Ozbiltekin-Pala, Melisa, 2023. "Impact of epidemic outbreaks (COVID-19) on global supply chains: A case of trade between Turkey and China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Mojtaba Hajian Heidary, 2022. "The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Supply Chain Operations: A System Dynamics Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(2), pages 198-220, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID pandemic; force majeure condition; supply chain (SC) disruption; demand; system dynamics model; policy and strategy experimentation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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