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Identification of Asset Price Misalignments on Financial Markets With Extreme Value Theory


  • Narcisa Kadlcakova
  • Lubos Komarek
  • Zlatuse Komarkova
  • Michal Hlavacek


This paper examines the potential for concurrence of crises in the foreign exchange, stock, and government bond markets as well as identifying asset price misalignments from equilibrium for three Central European countries and the euro area. Concurrence is understood as the joint occurrence of extreme asset changes in different countries and is assessed with a measure of the asymptotic tail dependence among the distributions studied. However, the main aim of the paper is to examine the potential for concurrence of misalignments from equilibrium among financial markets. To this end, representative assets are linked to their fundamentals using a cointegration approach. Next, the extreme values of the differences between the actual daily exchange rates and their monthly equilibrium values determine the episodes associated with large departures from equilibrium. Using tools from Extreme Value Theory, we analyze the transmission of both standard crisis and misalignment-from-equilibrium formation events in the foreign exchange, stock, and government bond markets examined. The results reveal significant potential for co-alignment of extreme events in these markets in Central Europe. The evidence for co-movements is found to be very weak for the exchange rates, but is stronger for the stock markets and bond markets in some periods.

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  • Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Michal Hlavacek, 2013. "Identification of Asset Price Misalignments on Financial Markets With Extreme Value Theory," Working Papers 2013/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2013/14

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    Cointegration; concurrence of extreme values; Extreme Value Theory; financial market;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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