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Heavy tails and currency crises

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  • Hartmann, P.
  • Straetmans, S.
  • de Vries, C.G.

Abstract

In affine models of foreign exchange rate returns, the nature of cross sectional interdependence in crisis periods hinges on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distribution. If the fundamentals exhibit thin tails like the normal distribution, the dependence vanishes asymptotically; while the dependence remains in the case of heavy tailed fundamentals as in case of the Student-t distribution. The linearity of the monetary model and heavy tail distributed fundamentals are sufficient conditions for fundamentals-based repeated joint currency crises. An estimator for the extreme exchange rate interdependencies is obtained and applied to Western, Asian and Latin American currency block data.

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  • Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & de Vries, C.G., 2010. "Heavy tails and currency crises," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 241-254, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:241-254
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    3. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2023. ""Generalized Extreme Value Approximation to the CUMSUMQ Test for Constant Unconditional Variance in Heavy-Tailed Time Series"," IREA Working Papers 202309, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2023.
    4. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & João Nicolau, 2015. "A New Regression-Based Tail Index Estimator: An Application to Exchange Rates," Working Papers w201514, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Charnchai Leuwattanachotinan & Casper G. de Vries, 2015. "Extreme Linkages in Financial Markets: Macro Shocks and Systemic Risk," PIER Discussion Papers 2, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Charnchai Leuwattanachotinan & Casper G. de Vries, 2015. "Extreme Linkages in Financial Markets: Macro Shocks and Systemic Risk," PIER Discussion Papers 2., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Sep 2015.
    7. Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Weiguo & Zhang, Xili & Chen, Xiaoyan, 2014. "The valuation of equity warrants under the fractional Vasicek process of the short-term interest rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 320-337.
    8. van Oordt, Maarten R.C. & Zhou, Chen, 2012. "The simple econometrics of tail dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 371-373.
    9. Maarten R C van Oordt & Chen Zhou, 2019. "Estimating Systematic Risk under Extremely Adverse Market Conditions," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 432-461.
    10. Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2013. "Early warning systems for currency crises: A multivariate extreme value approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 151-171.
    11. Qin, Xiao & Zhou, Chen, 2021. "Systemic risk allocation using the asymptotic marginal expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Qin, Xiao & Liu, Liya, 2014. "Extremes, return level and identification of currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-450.
    13. João Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2019. "A New Regression-Based Tail Index Estimator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 667-680, October.
    14. Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Michal Hlavacek, 2016. "Identification of Asset Price Misalignments on Financial Markets With Extreme Value Theory," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(11), pages 2595-2609, November.
    15. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Aubin, Christian & Goyeau, Daniel & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Extreme co-movements and dependencies among major international exchange rates: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 56-69.
    16. Fiala, Tomas & Havranek, Tomas, 2017. "The sources of contagion risk in a banking sector with foreign ownership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 108-121.
    17. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2014. "Co-dependence of extreme events in high frequency FX returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 164-178.
    18. Jenny Farmer & Donald Jacobs, 2018. "High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, May.
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    20. Phornchanok Cumperayot & Casper G. de Vries, 2006. "Large Swings in Currencies driven by Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-086/2, Tinbergen Institute.

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