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Fundamentals and Joint Currency Crises

Author

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  • de Vries, Casper G
  • Hartmann, Philipp
  • Straetmans, Stefan

Abstract

In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals’ distribution. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or vanishes asymptotically. We show that if one currency return reaches crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals’ distributions exhibit light tails (like, for example, the normal). If, however, the marginal distributions exhibit heavy tails, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well remains strictly positive even in the limit. This result implies that linearity and heavy tails are sufficient conditions for joint or contagious currency crises to happen systematically through fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2004. "Fundamentals and Joint Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 4338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4338
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    Cited by:

    1. Lombardi, Marco J. & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2009. "Indirect estimation of [alpha]-stable stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2298-2308, April.
    2. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    3. Zhang, Ran & Czado, Claudia & Min, Aleksey, 2011. "Efficient maximum likelihood estimation of copula based meta t-distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 1196-1214, March.
    4. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 683, European Central Bank.
    5. Matei KUBINSCHI & Dinu BARNEA, 2016. "Systemic Risk Impact on Economic Growth - The Case of the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 79-94, December.
    6. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2006. "Robust lessons about practical early warning systems," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 163-193, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymptotic dependence; currency market linkages; financial crises; fundamentals; heavy tails;

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G39 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Other

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