IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10212.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Term Effects of Grade Retention

Author

Listed:
  • Simon ter Meulen

Abstract

Grade retention offers students a chance to catch up with unmastered material but also leads to less labor-market experience by delaying graduation and labor-market entry. This is the first paper to quantify this trade-off, using an exit exam cutoff of Dutch academic secondary schools, where failing implies grade retention. I find no impact of retaining on final educational attainment, although retained students are later to graduate. Grade retention does lead to annual earnings loss at age 28 of 3000 euro (8.5%) due to reduced labor-market experience. Overall, grade retention is of no benefit for students around the cutoff.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon ter Meulen, 2023. "Long-Term Effects of Grade Retention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10212, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10212.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ferreira Sequeda, Maria & Golsteyn, Bart & Parra Cely, Sergio, 2018. "The effect of grade retention on secondary school performance: Evidence from a natural experiment," ROA Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    2. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    3. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(4), pages 909-946, December.
    4. Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio & Stijn Baert, 2019. "Modeling the effects of grade retention in high school," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 403-424, April.
    5. Mich�le Belot & Vincent Vandenberghe, 2014. "Evaluating the 'threat' effects of grade repetition: exploiting the 2001 reform by the French-Speaking Community of Belgium," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 73-89, February.
    6. Rebecca Diamond & Petra Persson, 2016. "The Long-term Consequences of Teacher Discretion in Grading of High-stakes Tests," NBER Working Papers 22207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Marinho Bertanha & Guido W. Imbens, 2020. "External Validity in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 593-612, July.
    8. Baert, Stijn & Picchio, Matteo, 2021. "A signal of (Train)ability? Grade repetition and hiring chances," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 867-878.
    9. Ozkan Eren & Michael F. Lovenheim & H. Naci Mocan, 2022. "The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(2), pages 361-395.
    10. Cornelisz, Ilja & Meeter, Martijn & van Klaveren, Chris, 2019. "Educational equity and teacher discretion effects in high stake exams," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Eide, Eric R. & Showalter, Mark H., 2001. "The effect of grade retention on educational and labor market outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 563-576, December.
    12. Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel, 2015. "Identifying the Effect of Changing the Policy Threshold in Regression Discontinuity Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1081-1092, December.
    13. Damon Clark & Paco Martorell, 2014. "The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(2), pages 282-318.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hanemaaijer, Kyra & Marie, Olivier & Musumeci, Marco, 2023. "The Fast and the Studious? Ramadan Observance and Student Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 16249, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Shiying & Huang, Ao, 2022. "The long-term effects of automatic grade promotion on child development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Hugo Reis & Emilio Borghesan, 2022. "Learning Through Repetition? A Dynamic Evaluation of Grade Retention in Portugal," Working Papers w202220, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Blaise Melly & Rafael Lalive, 2020. "Estimation, Inference, and Interpretation in the Regression Discontinuity Design," Diskussionsschriften dp2016, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    4. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    5. Yoichi Arai & Yu‐Chin Hsu & Toru Kitagawa & Ismael Mourifié & Yuanyuan Wan, 2022. "Testing identifying assumptions in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, January.
    6. Jin-young Choi & Myoung-jae Lee, 2017. "Regression discontinuity: review with extensions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1217-1246, December.
    7. Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik, 2022. "Regression Discontinuity Designs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 821-851, August.
    8. Javier Valbuena & Mauro Mediavilla & Álvaro Choi & María Gil, 2021. "Effects Of Grade Retention Policies: A Literature Review Of Empirical Studies Applying Causal Inference," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 408-451, April.
    9. Mellace, Giovanni & Ventura, Marco, 2019. "Intended and unintended effects of public incentives for innovation. Quasi-experimental evidence from Italy," Discussion Papers on Economics 9/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    10. Baert, Stijn & Picchio, Matteo, 2021. "A signal of (Train)ability? Grade repetition and hiring chances," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 867-878.
    11. Machin, Stephen & McNally, Sandra & Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer, 2020. "Entry through the narrow door: The costs of just failing high stakes exams," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    12. Chu, Yu-Wei Luke & Cuffe, Harold E, 2020. "Do Struggling Students Benefit From Continued Student Loan Access? Evidence From University and Beyond," Working Paper Series 21067, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Aaron Albert & Nathan Wozny, 2022. "The Impact of Academic Probation: Do Intensive Interventions Help?," Working Papers 2022-02, Department of Economics and Geosciences, US Air Force Academy.
    14. Denis Fougère & Nicolas Jacquemet, 2020. "Policy Evaluation Using Causal Inference Methods," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03455978, HAL.
    15. Matias D. Cattaneo & Luke Keele & Rocío Titiunik & Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2021. "Extrapolating Treatment Effects in Multi-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1941-1952, October.
    16. Servaas van der Berg & Gabrielle Wills & Rebecca Selkirk & Charles Adams & Chris van Wyk, 2019. "The cost of repetition in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    17. Takuya Ishihara & Masayuki Sawada, 2020. "Manipulation-Robust Regression Discontinuity Designs," Papers 2009.07551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    18. Miguel Fajardo-Steinhauser, 2023. "Peace Dividends: The Economic Effects of Colombia's Peace Agreement," Papers 2301.01843, arXiv.org.
    19. Ferreira Sequeda, Maria, 2020. "The effect of grade retention on secondary school dropout: Evidence from a natural experiment," ROA Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    20. Aspasia Bizopoulou & Rigissa Megalokonomou & Stefania Simion, 2022. "Do Second Chances Pay Off?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 22/762, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    grade retention; secondary education; higher education degrees; earnings loss;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.