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Modeling the Effects of Grade Retention in High School

Author

Listed:
  • Baert, Stijn

    (Ghent University)

  • Cockx, Bart

    (Ghent University)

  • Picchio, Matteo

    (Marche Polytechnic University)

Abstract

A dynamic discrete choice model is set up to estimate the effects of grade retention in high school, both in the short- (end-of-year evaluation) and long-run (drop-out and delay). In contrast to regression discontinuity designs, this approach captures treatment heterogeneity and controls for grade-varying unobservable determinants. A method is proposed to deal with initial conditions and with partial observability of the track choices at the start of high school. Forced track downgrading is considered as an alternative remedial measure. In the long-run, grade retention and its alternative have adverse effects on schooling outcomes and, more so, for less able pupils.

Suggested Citation

  • Baert, Stijn & Cockx, Bart & Picchio, Matteo, 2015. "Modeling the Effects of Grade Retention in High School," IZA Discussion Papers 9556, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9556
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    Cited by:

    1. Filomena, Mattia & Giorgetti, Isabella & Picchio, Matteo, 2022. "Off to a Bad Start: Youth Nonemployment and Labor Market Outcomes Later in Life," IZA Discussion Papers 15366, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Stijn Baert & Dieter Verhaest, 2021. "Work Hard or Play Hard? Degree Class, Student Leadership and Employment Opportunities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 1024-1047, August.
    3. Baert, Stijn & Picchio, Matteo, 2021. "A signal of (Train)ability? Grade repetition and hiring chances," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 867-878.
    4. Stijn Baert & Brecht Neyt & Eddy Omey & Dieter Verhaest, 2017. "Student work, educational achievement, and later employment: a dynamic approach," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 606874, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    5. Neyt, Brecht & Verhaest, Dieter & Baert, Stijn, 2020. "The impact of dual apprenticeship programmes on early labour market outcomes: A dynamic approach," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Javier Valbuena & Mauro Mediavilla & Álvaro Choi & María Gil, 2021. "Effects Of Grade Retention Policies: A Literature Review Of Empirical Studies Applying Causal Inference," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 408-451, April.
    7. Bach, Maximilian, 2019. "Strategic grade retention," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-059, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Matteo Picchio & Claudia Pigini & Stefano Staffolani & Alina Verashchagina, 2021. "If not now, when? The timing of childbirth and labor market outcomes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 663-685, September.
    9. Cockx, B. & Declercq, Koen & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2022. "Losing prospective entitlement to unemployment benefits. Impact on educational attainment," ROA Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    10. Neyt, Brecht & Verhaest, Dieter & Baert, Stijn, 2019. "The Impact of Internship Experience During Secondary Education on Schooling and Labour Market Outcomes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 425, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Zhang, Shiying & Huang, Ao, 2022. "The long-term effects of automatic grade promotion on child development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Hugo Reis & Emilio Borghesan, 2022. "Learning Through Repetition? A Dynamic Evaluation of Grade Retention in Portugal," Working Papers w202220, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Navarini, Lorenzo & Verhaest, Dieter, 2024. "Returns to Education and Overeducation Risk: A Dynamic Model," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1456, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    14. Loviglio, Annalisa, 2023. "School Quality beyond Test Scores: The Role of Schools in Shaping Educational Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 16111, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Olivier De Groote, 2025. "Dynamic Effort Choice in High School: Costs and Benefits of an Academic Track," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 467-502.
    16. By Stijn Baert & Brecht Neyt & Eddy Omey & Dieter Verhaest, 2022. "Student work during secondary education, educational achievement, and later employment: a dynamic approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1605-1635, September.
    17. Simon ter Meulen, 2023. "Long-Term Effects of Grade Retention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10212, CESifo.
    18. Servaas van der Berg & Gabrielle Wills & Rebecca Selkirk & Charles Adams & Chris van Wyk, 2019. "The cost of repetition in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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