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The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Ozkan Eren
  • Michael F. Lovenheim
  • H. Naci Mocan

Abstract

We present the first analysis of the effect of grade retention on adult criminal convictions, exploiting test cutoffs for ninth-grade promotion in Louisiana. Eighth-grade retention increases the likelihood of violent crime conviction by 1.05 percentage points (58.44%) and increases the number of violent crime convictions at first conviction. The effects are likely driven by declines in high school peer quality and reduced educational investments that result in lower noncognitive skill acquisition. Extrapolating effects away from the cutoff shows that our results are generalizable to a larger group of low-performing students and are evident for both property and drug crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozkan Eren & Michael F. Lovenheim & H. Naci Mocan, 2022. "The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(2), pages 361-395.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/715836
    DOI: 10.1086/715836
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    Cited by:

    1. Chao Fu & Nicolás Grau & Jorge Rivera, 2022. "Wandering astray: Teenagers' choices of schooling and crime," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 387-424, May.
    2. Hjalmarsson, Randi & Machin, Stephen & Pinotti, Paolo, 2024. "Crime and the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    3. Andrew Jordan & Ezra Karger & Derek Neal, 2025. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(4), pages 1005-1034.
    4. Stephen Machin & Matteo Sandi, 2025. "Crime and Education," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 17(1), pages 241-260, August.
    5. David N. Figlio & Krzysztof Karbownik & Umut Özek, 2023. "Sibling Spillovers May Enhance the Efficacy of Targeted School Policies," NBER Working Papers 31406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Maxime Fajeau & Julien Grenet & Emma Laveissière & Orane Leonetti, 2025. "Efficacité des politiques éducatives : sources et hypothèses de calcul," Institut des Politiques Publiques halshs-05458929, HAL.
    7. Zhang, Shiying & Huang, Ao, 2022. "The long-term effects of automatic grade promotion on child development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Simon ter Meulen, 2023. "Long-Term Effects of Grade Retention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10212, CESifo.
    9. Ferman, Bruno & Fontes, Luiz Felipe, 2022. "Assessing knowledge or classroom behavior? Evidence of teachers’ grading bias," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Umut Özek, 2025. "The Effects of High School Remediation on Long-Run Educational Attainment," CESifo Working Paper Series 11908, CESifo.
    11. Katharina Drescher, 2026. "Does School Social Work Work? The Impact of School Social Workers on Youth Crime and Education," Working Papers 246, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    12. Díaz, Juan & Grau, Nicolás & Reyes, Tatiana & Rivera, Jorge, 2021. "The impact of grade retention on juvenile crime," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior

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