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Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions

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  • Andrew Jordan
  • Ezra Karger
  • Derek Neal

Abstract

We examine 70,581 felony court cases filed in Chicago, Illinois, from 1990 to 2007. We exploit case randomization to assess the impact of judge assignment and sentencing decisions on the arrival of new charges. We estimate separate treatment and outcome equations for first and repeat offenders. In marginal cases, incarceration creates large and lasting reductions in recidivism among first offenders. Yet among marginal repeat offenders, incarceration creates no lasting reductions in the incidence of new felony charges. Our results raise concerns about the ubiquity of sentencing rules that recommend or dictate relative leniency for first offenders.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Jordan & Ezra Karger & Derek Neal, 2025. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(4), pages 1005-1034.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/730160
    DOI: 10.1086/730160
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