IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v239y2024ics0047272724001506.html

Do second chances pay off? Evidence from a natural experiment with low-achieving students

Author

Listed:
  • Bizopoulou, Aspasia
  • Megalokonomou, Rigissa
  • Simion, Ştefania

Abstract

In several countries, students who fail high-stakes exams at the end of high school are faced with the choice of retaking or forgoing postsecondary education. We explore exogenous variation generated by a policy that imposed a performance threshold for admission into postsecondary education in Greece to estimate the effect of retaking exams on the exam performance and various measures of the quality of received offers. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and novel administrative data, we find that low-achieving students who retake national exams improve their performance by around 0.6 standard deviation. We also find that they obtain higher quality postsecondary offers, thanks to improved performance and more ambitious re-application choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bizopoulou, Aspasia & Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Simion, Ştefania, 2024. "Do second chances pay off? Evidence from a natural experiment with low-achieving students," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:239:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724001506
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272724001506
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105214?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Felix Arnold & Ronny Freier, 2013. "Signature Requirements and Citizen Initiatives: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1311, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Jacob L. Vigdor & Charles T. Clotfelter, 2003. "Retaking the SAT," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
    3. Machin, Stephen & McNally, Sandra & Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer, 2020. "Entry through the narrow door: The costs of just failing high stakes exams," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Rocío Titiunik, 2019. "Regression Discontinuity Designs Using Covariates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 442-451, July.
    5. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 14(4), pages 909-946, December.
    6. Fanny Landaud & Eric Maurin, 2020. "Aim High and Persevere! Competitive Pressure and Access Gaps in Top Science Graduate Programs," Working Papers halshs-03065958, HAL.
    7. Rebecca Diamond & Petra Persson, 2016. "The Long-term Consequences of Teacher Discretion in Grading of High-stakes Tests," NBER Working Papers 22207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    9. Joshua Goodman & Michael Hurwitz & Jonathan Smith, 2017. "Access to 4-Year Public Colleges and Degree Completion," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(3), pages 829-867.
    10. Christos Koutsampelas & Panos Tsakloglou, 2015. "The progressivity of public education in Greece: empirical findings and policy implications," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 596-611, October.
    11. Blundell, Richard, et al, 2000. "The Returns to Higher Education in Britain: Evidence from a British Cohort," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages 82-99, February.
    12. Thomas S. Dee & Will Dobbie & Brian A. Jacob & Jonah Rockoff, 2019. "The Causes and Consequences of Test Score Manipulation: Evidence from the New York Regents Examinations," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 382-423, July.
    13. Gordon B. Dahl & Katrine V. L?ken & Magne Mogstad, 2014. "Peer Effects in Program Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2049-2074, July.
    14. Kala Krishna & Sergey Lychagin & Veronica Frisancho, 2018. "Retaking In High Stakes Exams: Is Less More?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 449-477, May.
    15. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    16. Joshua Goodman & Oded Gurantz & Jonathan Smith, 2020. "Take Two! SAT Retaking and College Enrollment Gaps," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 115-158, May.
    17. Sofoklis Goulas & Rigissa Megalokonomou, 2019. "Which degrees do students prefer during recessions?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 2093-2125, June.
    18. Cristian Pop-Eleches & Miguel Urquiola, 2013. "Going to a Better School: Effects and Behavioral Responses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1289-1324, June.
    19. Seth D. Zimmerman, 2014. "The Returns to College Admission for Academically Marginal Students," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 711-754.
    20. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    21. Scott-Clayton, Judith & Zafar, Basit, 2019. "Financial aid, debt management, and socioeconomic outcomes: Post-college effects of merit-based aid," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 68-82.
    22. Britton, Jack & van der Erve, Laura & Belfield, Chris & Vignoles, Anna & Dickson, Matt & Zhu, Yu & Walker, Ian & Dearden, Lorraine & Sibieta, Luke & Buscha, Franz, 2022. "How much does degree choice matter?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    23. Theodore Mitrakos & Panos Tsakloglou & Ioannis Cholezas, 2010. "Determining factors of youth unemployment in Greece with emphasis on tertiary education graduates," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 33, pages 21-62, May.
    24. Frisancho, Veronica & Krishna, Kala & Lychagin, Sergey & Yavas, Cemile, 2016. "Better luck next time: Learning through retaking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 120-135.
    25. Benjamin Crost & Joseph Felter & Patrick Johnston, 2014. "Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1833-1856, June.
    26. Christopher Avery & Oded Gurantz & Michael Hurwitz & Jonathan Smith, 2018. "Shifting College Majors in Response to Advanced Placement Exam Scores," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(4), pages 918-956.
    27. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    28. Damon Clark & Paco Martorell, 2014. "The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(2), pages 282-318.
    29. Andresen, Martin Eckhoff & Løkken, Sturla Andreas, 2020. "The Final straw: High school dropout for marginal students," MPRA Paper 106265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy, 1999. "Using Maimonides' Rule to Estimate the Effect of Class Size on Scholastic Achievement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 533-575.
    31. Serena Canaan & Pierre Mouganie, 2018. "Returns to Education Quality for Low-Skilled Students: Evidence from a Discontinuity," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 395-436.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guul, Thorbjørn Sejr & Nielsen, Søren Albeck, 2026. "“Not ready” as a productive wake-up call: Do second chances improve human capital investments?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    2. Goulas, Sofoklis & Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Zhang, Yi, 2025. "Female neighbors and careers in science," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(7).
    3. Alisha Hancock & Chris M. Boyd & Seth R. Gitter & Melissa Groves & Alexa Prettyman, 2026. "A Second Chance at Passing: Impacts of a Scholarship for Students Retaking Principles of Microeconomics," Working Papers 2026-10, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised May 2026.
    4. Goulas, Sofoklis & Griselda, Silvia & Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Zenou, Yves, 2024. "Disruptive Peers and Academic Performance: Short- and Long-Term Outcomes," CEPR Discussion Papers 19793, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Veronica Frisancho & Sebastian Gallegos & Constanza González, 2026. "Lasting Effects of Retaking College Admission Exams," Working Papers 2026-004, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aspasia Bizopoulou & Rigissa Megalokonomou & Stefania Simion, 2022. "Do Second Chances Pay Off? Evidence from a Natural Experiment with Low-Achieving Students," CESifo Working Paper Series 9620, CESifo.
    2. Aspasia Bizopoulou & Rigissa Megalokonomou & Stefania Simion, 2022. "Do Second Chances Pay Off?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 22/762, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Aspasia Bizopoulou & Rigissa Megalokonomou & Stefania Simion, 2023. "Do Second Chances Pay Off? Evidence from a Natural Experiment with Low-Achieving Students," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    4. Machin, Stephen & McNally, Sandra & Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer, 2020. "Entry through the narrow door: The costs of just failing high stakes exams," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Veronica Frisancho & Sebastian Gallegos & Constanza González, 2026. "Lasting Effects of Retaking College Admission Exams," Working Papers 2026-004, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    6. Joshua Goodman & Oded Gurantz & Jonathan Smith, 2020. "Take Two! SAT Retaking and College Enrollment Gaps," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 115-158, May.
    7. Blaise Melly & Rafael Lalive, 2020. "Estimation, Inference, and Interpretation in the Regression Discontinuity Design," Diskussionsschriften dp2016, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    8. Mellace, Giovanni & Ventura, Marco, 2019. "Intended and unintended effects of public incentives for innovation. Quasi-experimental evidence from Italy," Discussion Papers on Economics 9/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    9. Shenglong Liu & Yuanyuan Wan & Xiaoming Zhang, 2024. "Retirement Spillover Effects on Spousal Health in Urban China," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 756-783, September.
    10. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    11. Pastore, Chiara & Jones, Andrew M., 2023. "Human capital consequences of missing out on a grammar school education," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Jin-young Choi & Myoung-jae Lee, 2017. "Regression discontinuity: review with extensions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1217-1246, December.
    13. Ribas, Rafael P. & Sampaio, Breno & Trevisan, Giuseppe, 2020. "Short- and long-term effects of class assignment: Evidence from a flagship university in Brazil," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Oliver Anderson, 2023. "Walking the line: Does crossing a high-stakes exam threshold matter for labor market outcomes?," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 01, Stata Users Group.
    15. Mellace, Giovanni & Ventura, Marco, 2023. "The short-run effects of public incentives for innovation in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    16. Mark Hoekstra & Pierre Mouganie & Yaojing Wang, 2018. "Peer Quality and the Academic Benefits to Attending Better Schools," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(4), pages 841-884.
    17. Oliver Anderson, 2022. "Walking the line: Does crossing a high stakes exam threshold matter for labour market outcomes?," CEPEO Working Paper Series 22-05, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Jul 2024.
    18. Burgherr, David, 2022. "Behavioral Responses to a Pension Savings Mandate : Quasi-experimental Evidence from Swiss Tax Data," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 645, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    19. repec:fpr:ifprid:2244 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. D’Inverno, Giovanna & Smet, Mike & De Witte, Kristof, 2021. "Impact evaluation in a multi-input multi-output setting: Evidence on the effect of additional resources for schools," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1111-1124.
    21. Deng, Guoying & Du, Pengcheng & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Xu, Shu, 2024. "Corporate taxes and labor market informality evidence from China," IFPRI discussion papers 2244, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:239:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724001506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.