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Entry Through the Narrow Door: The Costs of Just Failing High Stakes Exams

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Machin

    (University College London)

  • Sandra McNally

    (London School of Economics)

  • Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

In many countries, important thresholds in examinations act as a gateway to higher levels of education and/or good employment prospects. This paper examines the consequences of just failing a key high stakes national examination in English taken at the end of compulsory schooling in England. It uses unique administrative data to show that students of the same ability have significantly different educational trajectories depending on whether or not they just pass or fail this exam. Three years later, students who just fail to achieve the required threshold have a lower probability of entering an upper-secondary high-level academic or vocational track and of starting tertiary education. Those who fail to pass the threshold are also more likely to drop out of education by age 18, without some form of employment. The moderately high effects of just passing or failing to pass the threshold in this high stakes exam are therefore a source of educational inequality with high potential long-term consequences for those affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Machin & Sandra McNally & Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2018. "Entry Through the Narrow Door: The Costs of Just Failing High Stakes Exams," Working Papers 2018-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2018-029
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    5. Aspasia Bizopoulou & Rigissa Megalokonomou & Stefania Simion, 2023. "Do Second Chances Pay Off? Evidence from a Natural Experiment with Low-Achieving Students," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. M. Antonella Mancino & Leonardo Fabio Morales & Diego F. Salazar, 2023. "Signaling Worker Quality in a Developing Country: Lessons from a Certification Program," Borradores de Economia 1259, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Stephen Gibbons & Claudia Hupkau & Sandra McNally & Henry G. Overman, 2021. "The Effects of College Capital Projects on Student Outcome," CVER Research Papers 035, Centre for Vocational Education Research.
    8. Gibbons, Stephen & Scrutinio, Vincenzo & Telhaj, Shqiponja, 2021. "Teacher turnover: Effects, mechanisms and organisational responses," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. McNally, Sandra & Schmidt, Luis & Valero, Anna, 2022. "Do Management Practices Matter in Further Education?," IZA Discussion Papers 15213, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Padilla-Romo, María & Peluffo, Cecilia, 2023. "Persistence of the Spillover Effects of Violence and Educational Trajectories," IZA Discussion Papers 16374, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. José Montalbán, 2023. "Countering Moral Hazard in Higher Education: The Role of Performance Incentives in Need-Based Grants," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(649), pages 355-389.
    12. Cabrera-Hernández, Francisco & Padilla-Romo, María & Peluffo, Cecilia, 2023. "Full-time schools and educational trajectories: Evidence from high-stakes exams," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    13. Machin, Stephen & McNally, Sandra & Terrier, Camille & Ventura, Guglielmo, 2020. "Closing the Gap between Vocational and General Education? Evidence from University Technical Colleges in England," IZA Discussion Papers 13837, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Lee Elliot Major & Stephen Machin, 2020. "Covid-19 and social mobility," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 583, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Albarran, Pedro & Battaglia, Marianna & Sartarelli, Marcello, 2022. "The psychological effect of a math signal," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Gill Wyness & Lindsey Macmillan & Jake Anders, 2021. "Does education raise people's productivity or does it just signal their existing ability?," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 12, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Apr 2021.
    17. Oliver Anderson, 2022. "Walking the line: Does crossing a high stakes exam threshold matter for labour market outcomes?," CEPEO Working Paper Series 22-05, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Apr 2022.
    18. Fumagalli, Laura & Rabe, Birgitta & Burn, Hettie, 2023. "Teacher grade predictions for ethnic minority groups: evidence from England," ISER Working Paper Series 2023-03, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    19. Aspasia Bizopoulou & Rigissa Megalokonomou & Stefania Simion, 2022. "Do Second Chances Pay Off?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 22/762, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    20. Oliver Anderson, 2023. "Walking the line: Does crossing a high-stakes exam threshold matter for labor market outcomes?," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 01, Stata Users Group.
    21. Sandra McNally & Luis Schmidt & Anna Valero, 2022. "Do management practices matter in further education?," POID Working Papers 026, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Chiara Cavaglia & Stephen Machin & Sandra McNally & Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2020. "Gender, achievement, and subject choice in English education," CVER Research Papers 032, Centre for Vocational Education Research.
    23. Holford, Angus, 2020. "Youth employment, academic performance and labour market outcomes: Production functions and policy effects," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    high stakes examinations; manipulation; English;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

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