IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iatrwp/320397.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Shipping Container Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Carter, Colin A.
  • Steinbach, Sandro
  • Zhuang, Xiting

Abstract

Containerized exports are significant for U.S. agriculture, especially for certain products, such as meat, tree nuts, and oilseeds. We assess the trade losses to U.S. agriculture arising from shipping container disruptions in 2021. We rely on a non-linear panel event study design to measure the dynamic treatment effects using both bills of lading and Census Bureau export data at the U.S. port level. Our findings are that the volume of U.S. containerized agricultural exports was 22 percent below the counterfactual level from May 2021 to January 2022, amounting to USD 10 billion in export losses. There were differences in the trade effects across geographic regions and product groups. We find that Western and Southern ports faced the brunt of export losses, with meat, edible fruits and nuts, oilseeds, and animal feed being the most affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Shipping Container Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Working Papers 320397, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iatrwp:320397
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.320397
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/320397/files/WP%2022-01%20Carter%20Steinbach%20Zhuang.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.320397?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon, 2021. "Has COVID-19 Caused a Great Trade Collapse? An Initial Ex Post Assessment," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(3), May.
    2. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro, 2020. "The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Trade," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304367, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Malgouyres, Clément & Mayer, Thierry & Mazet-Sonilhac, Clément, 2021. "Technology-induced trade shocks? Evidence from broadband expansion in France," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2020. "How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?," Working Papers 2020-109, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    5. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2013. "Regression Analysis of Count Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107667273, January.
    6. Jane Korinek & Patricia Sourdin, 2010. "Clarifying Trade Costs: Maritime Transport and Its Effect on Agricultural Trade," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 417-435.
    7. Ghislain B D Aihounton & Arne Henningsen, 2021. "Units of measurement and the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 334-351.
    8. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2019. "Pre-event Trends in the Panel Event-Study Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3307-3338, September.
    9. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    10. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    11. Jill E. Hobbs, 2021. "Food supply chain resilience and the COVID‐19 pandemic: What have we learned?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 189-196, June.
    12. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Balatti, Mirco & Mancini, Michele & Metelli, Luca, 2022. "Supply chain disruptions and the effects on the global economy," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
    13. Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "Port congestion, container shortages, and U.S. foreign trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    15. Carlos Dobkin & Amy Finkelstein & Raymond Kluender & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 308-352, February.
    16. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    17. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2023. "On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models: Identification, equivalence, and generalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 695-713, August.
    18. Jayson Beckman & Amanda M. Countryman, 2021. "The Importance of Agriculture in the Economy: Impacts from COVID‐19," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1595-1611, October.
    19. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    20. Daniele Curzi & Martijn Huysmans, 2022. "The Impact of Protecting EU Geographical Indications in Trade Agreements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 364-384, January.
    21. Koen Jochmans, 2017. "Two-Way Models for Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 478-485, July.
    22. Clark, Ximena & Dollar, David & Micco, Alejandro, 2004. "Port efficiency, maritime transport costs, and bilateral trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 417-450, December.
    23. Amiti, Mary & Kong, Sang Hoon & Weinstein, David, 2021. "Trade Protection, Stock-Market Returns, and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 16093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Lauren Chenarides & Mark Manfredo & Timothy J. Richards, 2021. "COVID‐19 and Food Supply Chains," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 270-279, March.
    25. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    26. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    27. Paul Kent & Hercules Haralambides, 2022. "A perfect storm or an imperfect supply chain? The U.S. supply chain crisis," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(1), pages 1-8, March.
    28. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    29. Carroll, Christopher D. & Crawley, Edmund & Slacalek, Jiri & White, Matthew N., 2020. "How has the U.S. coronavirus aid package affected household spending?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 75.
    30. Jasper Verschuur & Elco E. Koks & Jim W. Hall, 2021. "Observed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 305-307, March.
    31. Xi He, 2022. "Regional Trade Agreements and Excluded Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 428-449, January.
    32. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector," 2022 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting (Virtual), January 7-9, 2022 316789, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    33. Brian Bell & Nicholas Bloom & Jack Blundell, 2021. "This time is not so different: income dynamics during the Covid-19 recession," CEP Discussion Papers dp1792, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    34. David S Jacks & Krishna Pendakur, 2010. "Global Trade and the Maritime Transport Revolution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 745-755, November.
    35. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    36. Alvaro Espitia & Aaditya Mattoo & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Deborah Winkler, 2022. "Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 561-589, February.
    37. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    38. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    39. Marc F. Bellemare & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 50-61, February.
    40. Michelle Marcus & Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, 2021. "The Role of Parallel Trends in Event Study Settings: An Application to Environmental Economics," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 235-275.
    41. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    42. Aaron Flaaen & Flora Haberkorn & Logan Lewis & Anderson Monken & Justin Pierce & Rosemary Rhodes & Madeleine Yi, 2023. "Bill of lading data in international trade research with an application to the COVID‐19 pandemic," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1146-1172, August.
    43. Jason H. Grant & Dayton M. Lambert, 2008. "Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 765-782.
    44. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    45. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimarães & Tom Zylkin, 2020. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 20(1), pages 95-115, March.
    46. Jason H. Grant & Kathryn A. Boys, 2012. "Agricultural Trade and the GATT/WTO: Does Membership Make a Difference?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24.
    47. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    48. Ding, Haoyuan & Fan, Haichao & Lin, Shu, 2022. "COVID-19, firm exposure, and firm value: A tale of two lockdowns," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    49. Regmi, Anita & Gehlhar, Mark J. & Wainio, John & Vollrath, Thomas L. & Johnston, Paul V. & Kathuria, Nitin, 2005. "Market Access For High-Value Foods," Agricultural Economic Reports 33999, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    50. Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "On the role of domestic trade flows for estimating the gravity model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 526-540, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shirin, Farzana, 2023. "Does Teacher Salary Support Improve Student Learning Outcomes," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335793, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Container Trade Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322364, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    3. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector," 2023 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2023, New Orleans, Louisiana 316789, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Colin A. Carter & Sandro Steinbach & Xiting Zhuang, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and containerized agricultural exports from California ports," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1051-1071, June.
    5. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2022. "The Log of Gravity at 15," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(3), pages 423-437, September.
    6. Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Exports and the 2022 Mississippi River Drought," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335476, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Callaway, Brantly & Karami, Sonia, 2023. "Treatment effects in interactive fixed effects models with a small number of time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 184-208.
    8. Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "Port congestion, container shortages, and U.S. foreign trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Kim, Youngho, 2023. "Payments for Ecosystem Services Programs and Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335971, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Ahn, Soojung & Kim, Dongin & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Global Grain Trade Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335482, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Di, Wenhua & Pattison, Nathaniel, 2023. "Industry Specialization and Small Business Lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    12. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector," 2022 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting (Virtual), January 7-9, 2022 316789, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Cl'ement de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultf{oe}uille, 2021. "Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey," Papers 2112.04565, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    14. Myungkou Shin, 2022. "Finitely Heterogeneous Treatment Effect in Event-study," Papers 2204.02346, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    15. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jorge Perez Perez & Jesse Shapiro, 2021. "Visualization, Identification, and stimation in the Linear Panel Event-Study Design," Working Papers 21-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D’Haultfœuille, 2023. "Two-way fixed effects and differences-in-differences with heterogeneous treatment effects: a survey," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 1-30.
    17. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Claire Brunel & Thomas Zylkin, 2022. "Do cross‐border patents promote trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 379-418, February.
    19. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2022. "Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 62-79.
    20. Holger Breinlich & Valentina Corradi & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Joao M.C. Santos Silva & Tom Zylkin, 2021. "Machine Learning in International Trade Research ?- Evaluating the Impact of Trade Agreements," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0521, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iatrwp:320397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iatrcea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.