IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28871.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

This Time is Not so Different: Income Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Brian D. Bell
  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Jack Blundell

Abstract

We use a UK employer-employee administrative earnings dataset to investigate the response of earnings and hours to business cycles. Exploiting our long panel of data from 1975 to 2020 we find wide heterogeneity in the exposure of different types of workers to aggregate shocks. Employees who are younger, male, lower-skilled, non-union, and working in smaller private sector firms show the largest earnings response to recessions. The qualitative patterns of earnings changes across workers observed in the COVID-19 recession are broadly as predicted using the previously estimated exposures and size of the GDP shock. This suggests the COVID-19 recession in terms of its impact responses was relatively similar to those that have gone before, but the GDP shock was far larger in absolute size. Compared to aggregate shocks, we find a relatively small role of firm-specific shocks, suggesting macro shocks play an outsized role in individual earnings dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian D. Bell & Nicholas Bloom & Jack Blundell, 2021. "This Time is Not so Different: Income Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession," NBER Working Papers 28871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28871
    Note: EFG LS PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28871.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan Wadsworth, 2010. "Did the National Minimum Wage Affect UK Prices?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 81-120, March.
    3. Brian Bell & John Reenen, 2014. "Bankers and Their Bonuses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(574), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William Kerr & Çağlar Özden & Christopher Parsons, 2017. "High-Skilled Migration and Agglomeration," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 201-234, September.
    7. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    8. Advani, Arun & Koenig, Felix & Pessina, Lorenzo & Summers, Andy, 2020. "Importing Inequality: Immigration and the Top 1 Percent," IZA Discussion Papers 13731, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Blanchflower, David G. & Bryson, Alex, 2008. "Union decline in Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19603, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Stephen Nickell & Glenda Quintini, 2003. "Nominal wage rigidity and the rate of inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 762-781, October.
    11. Fatih Guvenen & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Jae Song & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 398-403, May.
    12. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    13. Jack Blundell & Stephen Machin & Maria Ventura, 2020. "Covid-19 and the self-employed: six months into the crisis," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-012, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Eli Bekman & John Bound & Stephen Machin, 1998. "Implications of Skill-Biased Technological Change: International Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1245-1279.
    15. Stephen Machin, 2000. "Union Decline in Britain," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 631-645, December.
    16. Alan Manning & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "The Part-Time Pay Penalty for Women in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(526), pages 28-51, February.
    17. Daniel Schaefer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Recent Changes in British Wage Inequality: Evidence from Large Firms and Occupations," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 100-125, February.
    18. Hills, John & Brewer, Mike & Jenkins, Stephen P & Lister, Ruth & Lupton, Ruth & Machin, Stephen & Mills, Colin & Modood, Tariq & Rees, Teresa & Riddell, Sheila, 2010. "An anatomy of economic inequality in the UK: report of the National Equality Panel," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Tito Boeri & Giulia Giupponi & Alan B. Krueger & Stephen Machin, 2020. "Solo Self-Employment and Alternative Work Arrangements: A Cross-Country Perspective on the Changing Composition of Jobs," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 170-195, Winter.
    20. Michael W. L. Elsby & Donggyun Shin & Gary Solon, 2016. "Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession and Other Downturns: Evidence from the United States and Great Britain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 249-291.
    21. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    22. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Peter Dolton & Chiara Rosazza Bondibene & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2010. "The UK National Minimum Wage in Retrospect," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 509-534, December.
    24. Titan Alon & Matthias Doepke & Jane Olmstead-Rumsey & Michèle Tertilt, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_163, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    25. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2010. "The great moderation in micro labor earnings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 391-403, May.
    26. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    27. Benedikt Herz & Thijs Van Rens, 2020. "The labor market in the UK, 2000–2019," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 422-422, February.
    28. Brian Bell & Mihai Codreanu & Stephen Machin, 2020. "What can previous recessions tell us about the Covid-19 downturn?," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    29. John Hills, 2010. "An Anatomy of Economic Inequality in the UK - Report of the National Equality Panel," CASE Reports casereport60, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    30. Barbara Petrongolo, 2019. "The gender gap in employment and wages," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 316-318, April.
    31. Alan B. Krueger, 2017. "Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 1-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monica Martinez-Bravo & Carlos Sanz, 2021. "Inequality and psychological well-being in times of COVID-19: evidence from Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 489-548, December.
    2. Bozena Wielgoszewska & Alex Bryson & Monica Costa-Dias & Francesca Foliano & Heather Joshi & David Wilkinson, 2021. "Exploring the Reasons for Labour Market Gender Inequality a Year into the Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the UK Cohort Studies," DoQSS Working Papers 21-23, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    3. Bridges, Jonathan & Green, Georgina & Joy, Mark, 2021. "Credit, crises and inequality," Bank of England working papers 949, Bank of England.
    4. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Shipping Container Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Working Papers 320397, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    5. Banerjee, Pradip & Dhole, Sandip & Mishra, Sagarika, 2023. "Operating performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: Is there a business group advantage?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Silvia Sarpietro & Yuya Sasaki & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Non-Existent Moments of Earnings Growth," Papers 2203.08014, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    7. Vogtenhuber, Stefan & Steiber, Nadia & Mühlböck, Monika, 2023. "Got used to make less: the lasting earnings losses of COVID-19 short-time work," SocArXiv p2qvh, Center for Open Science.
    8. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Container Trade Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322364, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Erick Rangel González & Irving Llamosas-Rosas & Sara Hutchinson Tovar, 2024. "Analysis of the initial effects of COVID-19 on jobs affiliated to IMSS, at the national and regional level, by sex and age groups," Working Papers 2024-08, Banco de México.
    10. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian M. & Scur, Daniela, 2023. "The effect of preserving job matches during a crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brian Bell & Nicholas Bloom & Jack Blundell, 2022. "Income dynamics in the United Kingdom and the impact of the Covid‐19 recession," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1849-1878, November.
    2. Schaefer, Daniel & Singleton, Carl, 2017. "Recent changes in British wage inequality: Evidence from firms and occupations," MPRA Paper 76744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    4. Daniel Schaefer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Recent Changes in British Wage Inequality: Evidence from Large Firms and Occupations," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 100-125, February.
    5. John Carter Braxton & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Jonathan Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2021. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Daniel Schäfer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Nominal Wage Adjustments and the Composition of Pay: New Evidence from Payroll Data," Economics working papers 2020-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    7. Guido Matias Cortes & Eliza Forsythe, 2023. "Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(1), pages 30-55, January.
    8. Arpit Gupta & Anup Malani & Bartosz Woda, 2021. "Inequality in India Declined During COVID," NBER Working Papers 29597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Koşar, Gizem & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2023. "Workers' Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 16013, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Rafa Madariaga & Joan Carles Martori & Ramon Oller, 2019. "Wage income inequality in Catalonian second-rank cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(2), pages 285-304, April.
    11. Schaefer, Daniel & Singleton, Carl, 2019. "Cyclical labor costs within jobs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Luca Bonacini & Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano, 2021. "Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 303-360, January.
    13. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley, 2017. "Comment on "When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 76-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Shania Bhalotia & Swati Dhingra & Fjolla Kondirolli, 2020. "City of dreams no more: the impact of Covid-19 on urban workers in India," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-008, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Tobin Hanspal & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "Exposure to the Covid-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 8244, CESifo.
    16. Salverda, Wiemer & Checchi, Daniele, 2014. "Labour-Market Institutions and the Dispersion of Wage Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 8220, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Foliano, Francesca & Tonei, Valentina & Sevilla, Almudena, 2024. "Social restrictions, leisure and well-being," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Hamid Boustanifar & Everett Grant & Ariell Reshef, 2018. "Wages and Human Capital in Finance: International Evidence, 1970–2011 [Financial reform: what shakes it? What shapes it?]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 699-745.
    19. Kouki, Amairisa, 2023. "Beyond the “Comforts” of work from home: Child health and the female wage penalty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    20. Hero Ashman & Seth Neumuller, 2020. "Can Income Differences Explain the Racial Wealth Gap: A Quantitative Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 220-239, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28871. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.