IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/127659.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What do we know about income and earnings volatility?

Author

Listed:
  • Brewer, Mike
  • Cominetti, Nye
  • Jenkins, Stephen P.

Abstract

We first review research about income and earnings volatility and second provide new UK evidence about the latter using high‐quality administrative record data. The USA stands out as a high‐volatility country relative to the UK and other high‐income countries, but volatility levels have remained constant in these countries recently. Almost all research has considered volatility from an annual perspective whereas we provide new evidence about month‐to‐month earnings volatility. There is a distinct within‐year seasonal pattern to volatility, and volatility is highest for the top and bottom tenths of earners. High earnings volatility among top earners and its seasonality reflect pay bonus patterns whereas, for low earners, the instability of hours including zero‐hours contracts likely plays important roles. Our findings have relevance to the design of cash transfer support in the UK because the monthly reference periods it uses do not align with many earners' pay periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Brewer, Mike & Cominetti, Nye & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2025. "What do we know about income and earnings volatility?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:127659
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/127659/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ziliak, James P. & Hardy, Bradley & Bollinger, Christopher, 2011. "Earnings volatility in America: Evidence from matched CPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 742-754.
    2. Michael Baker & Gary Solon, 2003. "Earnings Dynamics and Inequality among Canadian Men, 1976-1992: Evidence from Longitudinal Income Tax Records," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 267-288, April.
    3. Shin, Donggyun & Solon, Gary, 2011. "Trends in men's earnings volatility: What does the Panel Study of Income Dynamics show?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 973-982, August.
    4. Jenkins, Stephen P., 2011. "Changing Fortunes: Income Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Britain," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199226436, Decembrie.
    5. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.
    6. Giorgia Menta & Edward N. Wolff & Conchita D’ Ambrosio, 2021. "Income and wealth volatility: evidence from Italy and the U.S. in the past two decades," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(2), pages 293-313, June.
    7. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    8. Neil Bania & Laura Leete, 2009. "Monthly household income volatility in the U.S., 1991/92 vs. 2002/03," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2100-2112.
    9. Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of Labor Income Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 58-79, January.
    10. Ostrovsky, Yuri, 2012. "The correlation of spouses' permanent and transitory earnings and family earnings inequality in Canada," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 756-768.
    11. Egidio Farina & Colin Green & Duncan McVicar, 2020. "Zero Hours Contracts and Their Growth," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 507-531, September.
    12. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2010. "The great moderation in micro labor earnings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 391-403, May.
    13. Shorrocks, Anthony, 1978. "Income inequality and income mobility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 376-393, December.
    14. Robert A. Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2012. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings: Methods and Evidence," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(1), pages 204-236.
    15. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    16. Dynan Karen & Elmendorf Douglas & Sichel Daniel, 2012. "The Evolution of Household Income Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, December.
    17. Molly Dahl & Thomas DeLeire & Jonathan A. Schwabish, 2011. "Estimates of Year-to-Year Volatility in Earnings and in Household Incomes from Administrative, Survey, and Matched Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(4), pages 750-774.
    18. Lars Osberg, 2015. "How Should One Measure Economic Insecurity?," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2015/1, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    2. Markus Jäntti & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2013. "Income Mobility," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 607, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    3. Silvia Avram & Mike Brewer & Paul Fisher & Laura Fumagalli, 2022. "Household Earnings and Income Volatility in the UK, 2009–2017," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 345-369, June.
    4. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    5. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2018. "Income Volatility and the PSID: Past Research and New Results," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 277-280, May.
    6. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2018. "The PSID and Income Volatility: Its Record of Seminal Research and Some New Findings," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 48-81, November.
    7. Bartels, Charlotte & Neumann, Dirk, 2021. "Redistribution and Insurance in Welfare States around the World," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 123(4), pages 1116-1158.
    8. Robert Moffitt & John Abowd & Christopher Bollinger & Michael Carr & Charles Hokayem & Kevin McKinney & Emily Wiemers & Sisi Zhang & James Ziliak, 2022. "Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.
    10. Louis Chauvel & Anne Hartung & Flaviana Palmisano, 2017. "Dynamics of Income Rank Volatility: Evidence from Germany and the US," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 926, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2022. "Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 20-25, December.
    12. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2013. "Earnings and Labour Market Volatility in Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 7491, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Marco Leonardi, 2017. "Job Mobility And Earnings Instability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 260-280, January.
    14. Robert A. Moffitt, 2020. "Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from a Four Data Set Project," NBER Working Papers 27664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Riphahn, Regina T. & Schnitzlein, Daniel D., 2016. "Wage mobility in East and West Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 11-34.
    16. David Card & Dean R. Hyslop, 2018. "Female Earnings Inequality: The Changing Role of Family Characteristics on the Extensive and Intensive Margins," NBER Working Papers 25387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Michael D. Carr & Robert A. Moffitt & Emily E. Wiemers, 2020. "Reconciling Trends in Volatility: Evidence from the SIPP Survey and Administrative Data," NBER Working Papers 27672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kyong Hyun Koo, 2016. "The Evolution of Earnings Volatility During and After the Great Recession," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 705-732, October.
    19. Sara AYLLÓN & Xavier RAMOS, 2019. "Youth earnings and labour market volatility in Europe," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 158(1), pages 83-113, March.
    20. Avcioglu, Sahin & Karabay, Bilgehan, 2019. "Search efficiency, wage dynamics and welfare," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 270-286.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    income volatility; earnings volatility; PAYE data; administrative record data; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:127659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.