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What Do We Know About Income and Earnings Volatility?

Author

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  • Brewer, Mike

    (London School of Economics)

  • Cominetti, Nye
  • Jenkins, Stephen P.

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

We first review research about income and earnings volatility and second provide new UK evidence about the latter using high quality administrative record data. The USA stands out as a high volatility country relative to the UK and other high-income countries, but volatility levels have remained constant in these countries recently. Almost all research has considered volatility from an annual perspective whereas we provide new evidence about month-to-month earnings volatility. There is a distinct within-year seasonal pattern to volatility, and volatility is highest for the top and bottom tenths of earners. High earnings volatility among top earners and its seasonality reflect pay bonus patterns whereas, for low earners, the instability of hours including zero-hours contracts likely play important roles. Our findings have relevance to the design of cash transfer support in the UK because the monthly reference periods it uses do not align with many earners’ pay periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Brewer, Mike & Cominetti, Nye & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2025. "What Do We Know About Income and Earnings Volatility?," IZA Discussion Papers 17808, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17808
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ziliak, James P. & Hardy, Bradley & Bollinger, Christopher, 2011. "Earnings volatility in America: Evidence from matched CPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 742-754.
    2. Jenkins, Stephen P., 2011. "Changing Fortunes: Income Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Britain," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199226436, Decembrie.
    3. Charlotte Bartels & Timm Bönke, 2013. "Can Households And Welfare States Mitigate Rising Earnings Instability?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(2), pages 250-282, June.
    4. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2010. "The great moderation in micro labor earnings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 391-403, May.
    5. Shorrocks, Anthony, 1978. "Income inequality and income mobility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 376-393, December.
    6. Silvia Avram & Mike Brewer & Paul Fisher & Laura Fumagalli, 2022. "Household Earnings and Income Volatility in the UK, 2009–2017," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 345-369, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    survey data; income volatility; earnings volatility; PAYE data; administrative record data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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