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How does food supply respond to high and volatile international food prices? An empirical evaluation of inter- and intra- seasonal global crop acreage response

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  • Haile, Mekbib G.
  • Kalkuhl, Matthias
  • Braun, Joachim von

Abstract

Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. The innovations of the present paper are estimates of monthly (i.e. seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for four staple crops: wheat, soybeans, corn and rice. We focus on the impact of (expected) crop prices, oil and fertilizer prices and market risks (price volatility and spikes) as main determinants for farmers’ decisions on how to allocate their land. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra-annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short-term volatility in food prices. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short-run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.15; price volatility tends to reduce acreage response as do price spikes on top of that. Comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of the essence for acreage response: the analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in spring than in winter and the response varies across months.

Suggested Citation

  • Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "How does food supply respond to high and volatile international food prices? An empirical evaluation of inter- and intra- seasonal global crop acreage response," 2013 AAAE Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161472, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae13:161472
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    food price volatility; acreage response; price expectation; land use; food supply; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Security and Poverty; Land Economics/Use; O11; O13; Q11; Q13; Q18; Q24;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

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