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Dynamic Econometric Models of Manitoba Crop Production and Hypothetical Production Impacts for CAIS

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  • Coyle, Barry T.
  • Wei, Ran
  • Rude, James

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the Canadian Agriculture Income Stabilization (CAIS)program. The study begins with a specification of dynamic crop production that decomposes static short run crop acreage allocation decisions and dynamic crop yield affects. The modelling framework accommodates risk aversion, price uncertainty, and applies recent aggregation theory to aggregate weather data. Using this framework an analytical model of the impacts of CAIS on crop production is developed. Hypothetical impacts of are simulated using an aggregate Manitoba data set. The results show that CAIS has a substantial impact on the shadow prices of both inputs and outputs. These shadow price effects resulted in a 4 percent increase in long run wheat and barley yields and a 2 percent increase for canola. CAIS has a small impact on nominal wealth but the impacts depend on the properties of producers’ risk preferences. With constant relative risk aversion there is a wealth effect which in turn affects production decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Coyle, Barry T. & Wei, Ran & Rude, James, 2008. "Dynamic Econometric Models of Manitoba Crop Production and Hypothetical Production Impacts for CAIS," Working Papers 46630, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:catpwp:46630
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46630
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David A. Hennessy, 1998. "The Production Effects of Agricultural Income Support Policies under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 46-57.
    2. Quiggin, John C. & Karagiannis, Giannis & Stanton, J., 1993. "Crop Insurance And Crop Production: An Empirical Study Of Moral Hazard And Adverse Selection," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 37(02), August.
    3. Pope, Rulon D., 1988. "A new parametric test for the structure of risk preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 117-121.
    4. Beach, Charles M & MacKinnon, James G, 1978. "A Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Regression with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 51-58, January.
    5. David A. Hennessy & Bruce A. Babcock & Dermot J. Hayes, 1997. "Budgetary and Producer Welfare Effects of Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1024-1034.
    6. Mike Massow & Alfons Weersink, 1993. "Acreage Response to Government Stabilization Programs in Ontario," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 41(1), pages 13-26, March.
    7. Barry T. Coyle, 1999. "Risk Aversion and Yield Uncertainty in Duality Models of Production: A Mean-Variance Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 553-567.
    8. Robert G. Chambers & John Quiggin, 2001. "Decomposing Input Adjustments under Price and Production Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(1), pages 20-34.
    9. James Rude, 2000. "An Examination of Nearly Green Programs: Case Study for Canada," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 755-761.
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    11. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
    12. David A. Hennessy & Bruce A. Babcock & Dermot J. Hayes, 1997. "Budgetary and Producer Welfare Effects of Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1024-1034.
    13. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2006. "Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 43-56.
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    Cited by:

    1. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    2. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim Braun, 2014. "Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 693-710, November.
    3. Bakhshi, Samira & Kerr, William A., 2009. "Is There Supply Distortion In The Green Box? An Acreage Response Approach," Working Papers 51093, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    4. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "How does food supply respond to high and volatile international food prices? An empirical evaluation of inter- and intra- seasonal global crop acreage response," 2013 AAAE Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161472, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    5. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Canada; CAIS; risk; crop; production; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty;

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