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Area Allocation Under Price Uncertainty on Dutch Arable Farms

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  • Alfons Oude Lansink

Abstract

This paper uses a Mean‐Variance utility function to build a dual model that simultaneously determines area allocation and production/input levels under output price uncertainty. Regularity conditions of the indirect utility function (convexity) and producers risk preferences are tested. The framework is applied to a rotating sample of Dutch arable farms. Dutch arable farmers are found to be risk averse, with the size of the risk premium given by 3 per cent of annual profit. A bootstrap resampling method shows that curvature conditions are rejected. Price elasticities are compared for an unrestricted model and for a model with curvature conditions being imposed.

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  • Alfons Oude Lansink, 1999. "Area Allocation Under Price Uncertainty on Dutch Arable Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 93-105, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:50:y:1999:i:1:p:93-105
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1999.tb00797.x
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.1999.tb00797.x
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    1. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "How does food supply respond to high and volatile international food prices? An empirical evaluation of inter- and intra- seasonal global crop acreage response," 2013 Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161472, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    2. Platoni, Silvia & Sckokai, Paolo & Moro, Daniele, 2008. "Panel Data Estimation Techniques for Farm-level Data Model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44268, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Carpentier, Alain & Gohin, Alexandre & Sckokai, Paolo & Thomas, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 96(01), pages 131-165, March.
    4. Magrini, Emiliano & Balié, Jean & Morales Opazo, Cristian, 2016. "Price signals and supply responses for staple food crops in SSA countries," DARE Discussion Papers 1601, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    5. Britz, Wolfgang & Linda, Arata, "undated". "How Important Are Crop Shares In Managing Risk For Specialized Arable Farms? A Panel Estimation Of A Programming Model For Three European Regions," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244801, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    6. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2003. "Grain price volatility in a small open economy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 77-98, March.
    7. Roche, M. & McQuinn, K., 2003. "Efficient allocation of land in a decoupled world," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1190103, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    8. Boere, Esther & Peerlings, Jack H.M. & Reinhard, Stijn & Kuhlman, Tom & Heijman, Wim J.M., 2012. "Effects of volatile output prices on agricultural land-use change," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122472, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Benjamin Dequiedt & Emmanuel Servonnat, 2016. "Risk as a limit or an opportunity to mitigate GHG emissions? The case of fertilisation in agriculture," Working Papers 1606, Chaire Economie du climat.
    10. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    11. Mary, Sebastien & Santini, Fabien & Boulanger, Pierre, 2013. "An Ex-Ante Assessment of CAP Income Stabilisation Payments using a Farm Household Model," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158860, Agricultural Economics Society.
    12. Boyle, Gerry & Conniffe, Denis & McQuinn, Kieran, 2005. "A New Mean Standard Deviation Utility Function and the Behaviour Towards Risk of Specialist Irish Agricultural Producers: 1988-1997," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Abdullahi Abdulkadri & Michael Langemeier & Allen Featherstone, 2006. "Estimating economies of scope and scale under price risk and risk aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 191-201.
    14. Sckokai, Paolo & Moro, Daniele & Platoni, Silvia, 2008. "Farm-Level Data Model For Agricultural Policy Analysis: A Two-Way Ecm Approach," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6693, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Sckokai, Paolo & Moro, Daniele, 2002. "Modelling The Cap Arable Crop Regime Under Uncertainty," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19860, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    17. Zhang, Lichun & McErlean, Seamus & Patton, Myles, 2010. "Impact of Risk within the Northern Ireland Dairy Sector," 84th Annual Conference, March 29-31, 2010, Edinburgh, Scotland 91802, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim Braun, 2014. "Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 693-710, November.
    19. Yao, Ling & Chen, Qihui & Wu, Laping, 2018. "Heterogeneous supply response: Does high price expectation attenuate the inverse farm size-productivity relationship in China?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274363, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand, 2010. "Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: The need for a paradigm change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 345-350, July.
    21. Bezemer, Dirk J., 2004. "Risk and agricultural de-collectivisation, with evidence from the Czech Republic," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 13-33, March.
    22. Magrini, Emiliano & Morales-Opazo, Cristian & Balie, Jean, 2014. "Supply response along the value chain in selected SSA countries: the case of grains," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197193, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    23. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    24. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    25. Feinerman, Eli & Gardebroek, Cornelis, 2005. "Stimulating Organic Farming Via Public Services and an Auction-Based Subsidy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24723, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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