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Ernest Pons

Personal Details

First Name:Ernest
Middle Name:
Last Name:Pons
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:ppo797
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4485-6874

Affiliation

(50%) Departament d'Econometria, Estadística i Economia Espanyola
School of Economics
Universitat de Barcelona

Barcelona, Spain
http://www.ub.es/dpees/
RePEc:edi:dpeubes (more details at EDIRC)

(50%) Grup d'Anàlisi Quantitativa Regional
Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada (IREA)
School of Economics
Universitat de Barcelona

Barcelona, Spain
http://www.ub.edu/aqr/
RePEc:edi:aqrubes (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

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Jump to: Working papers Articles Chapters

Working papers

  1. José R. García-Sanchís & Ernest Pons & Jordi Suriñach & Esther Vayá, 2022. "“El impacto económico del Covid-19 sobre el sector turístico español”," AQR Working Papers 202209, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2022.
  2. Ernest Pons Fanals & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 2002. "An analysis of inflation rates in the european union using wavelets: strong evidence against unit roots," Working Papers in Economics 81, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  3. Ernest Pons Fanals & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 2000. "Una extension de la regresion propuesta por Geweke y Porter-Hudak para la estimacion del orden de diferenciacion en modelos ARFIMA," Working Papers in Economics 61, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  4. Ernest Pons Fanals & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1999. "Consecuencias de la modelizacion ARIMA para la extraccion de senales en coyuntura," Working Papers in Economics 52, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  5. Andreu Sanso & Ernest Pons Fanals & Manuel Artis Ortuno & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1997. "Analisis del sesgo producido en los contrastes univariantes de phillips-ouliaris-joyeux por la utilizacion de ventanas espectrales," Working Papers in Economics 16, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  6. Ernest Pons Fanals & Jordi Pons Novell & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1997. "Trimestralizacion y conciliacion de magnitudes economicas: una ampliacion del metodo Chow-Lin," Working Papers in Economics 20, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  7. Ernest Pons Fanals & Jordi Pons Novell, 1997. "Son excesivamente suaves las series de contabilidad nacional trimestral?," Working Papers in Economics 15, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  8. Tomas del Barrio Castro & Miguel Juan Clar Lopez & Ernest Pons Fanals, 1996. "El filtro de lineas aereas modificadas, integrabilidad y cointegracion," Working Papers in Economics 11, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.

Articles

  1. Esther Vayá & José R Garcia & Jordi Suriñach & Ernest Pons, 2024. "Effects of the COVID-19 tourism crisis on the Spanish economy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(4), pages 1021-1038, June.
  2. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
  3. O Claveria & E Pons & J Surinach, 2006. "Quantification of Expectations. Are They Useful for Forecasting Inflation?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(2), pages 19-38, September.

Chapters

  1. Vanesa Berlanga Silvente & Pilar Figuera Gazo & Ernest Pons, 2015. "El poder predictivo de determinadas variables en la persistencia universitaria: un análisis discriminante," Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación volume 10, in: Marta Rahona López & Jennifer Graves (ed.), Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación 10, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 23, pages 455-468, Asociación de Economía de la Educación.

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Ernest Pons Fanals & Jordi Pons Novell & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1997. "Trimestralizacion y conciliacion de magnitudes economicas: una ampliacion del metodo Chow-Lin," Working Papers in Economics 20, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan de Dios Tena & Miguel Jerez & Sonia Sotoca & Nicole Carvallo, 2006. "A Proposal to Obtain a Long Quarterly Chilean GDP Series," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(128), pages 285-300.

Articles

  1. Esther Vayá & José R Garcia & Jordi Suriñach & Ernest Pons, 2024. "Effects of the COVID-19 tourism crisis on the Spanish economy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(4), pages 1021-1038, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Alice Guerra & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Laura Vici, 2024. "The impact of COVID-19 on tourism expenditures: A Quasi-DiD analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(8), pages 2134-2158, December.

  2. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.

    Cited by:

    1. Dées, Stéphane & Soares Brinca, Pedro, 2011. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: evidence for the United States and the euro area," Working Paper Series 1349, European Central Bank.
    2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    3. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    4. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, April.
    5. María Alejandra Hernández-Montes & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Jonathan Alexander Muñoz-Martínez, 2022. "Aporte de las expectativas de empresarios al pronóstico de las variables macroeconómicas," Borradores de Economia 1202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Marta Necadova, 2019. "Changes in Economic Sentiment Indicators before and after Economic Crisis (Position of Visegrad Group and Germany in EU)," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 55-85.
    7. Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 343, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    9. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
    10. Juan G Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucia I Rosich, 2021. "On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1970-1982.
    11. Oscar Claveria, 2019. "Forecasting the unemployment rate using the degree of agreement in consumer unemployment expectations," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 53(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Gabriel Caldas Montes & André Almeida, 2017. "Corruption and business confidence: a panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2692-2702.
    13. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    14. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "Explaining Business Sentiment: Insights from the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 12007, CESifo.
    15. Yuan-Ming Lee & Kuan-Min Wang, 2012. "Searching for a better proxy for business cycles: with supports using US data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(11), pages 1433-1442, April.
    16. Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
    17. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2023. "Are low frequency macroeconomic variables important for high frequency electricity prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Robert Lehmann, 2020. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 8291, CESifo.
    19. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
    20. José R. Maria & Sara Serra, 2008. "Forecasting investment: A fishing contest using survey data," Working Papers w200818, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    21. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33.
    22. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," IREA Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2018.
    23. André Filipe Guedes Almeida & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Effects of crime and violence on business confidence: evidence from Rio de Janeiro," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1669-1688, May.
    24. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Andreas Tsiaklis, 2011. "An Analysis of Firms’ Expectations about Activity and Employment," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 5(1), pages 71-85, June.
    25. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
    26. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming”," AQR Working Papers 201706, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2017.
    27. Helder Ferreira Mendonça & André Filipe Guedes Almeida, 2019. "Importance of credibility for business confidence: evidence from an emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1979-1996, December.
    28. Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucía Rosich, 2019. "Common trends in producers’ expectations, the nonlinear linkage with Uruguayan GDP and its implications in economic growth forecasting," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-28, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    29. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Robert Lehmann, 2015. "Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?," ifo Working Paper Series 196, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    31. Tiziana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2015. "The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: evidence from SIGE," Working Papers LuissLab 15118, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    32. José R. Maria & Sara Serra, 2008. "Forecasting Investment in Portugal Using Qualitative and Quantitative Data," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    33. Ciaran Driver, 2019. "Trade liberalization and South African manufacturing: Looking back with data," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    34. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2020. "“Spectral analysis of business and consumer survey data”," AQR Working Papers 2012002, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2020.
    35. R. Lehmann & K. Wohlrabe, 2017. "Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 279-283, February.
    36. Claveria, Oscar & Datzira, Jordi, 2008. "Tourism Demand in Catalonia: Detecting External Economic Factors," MPRA Paper 25303, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2008.
    37. Euler Pereira G. de Mello & Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo, 2014. "Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices," Working Papers Series 371, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    38. Christos Papamichael & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2016. "The Role of Survey Data in the Construction of Short-term GDP Growth Forecasts," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 10(2), pages 77-109, December.
    39. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
    40. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "What Is Behind the ifo Business Climate? Evidence from a Meta-Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 11482, CESifo.
    41. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    42. Gillmann, Niels & Kim, Alisa, 2021. "Quantification of Economic Uncertainty: a deep learning approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242421, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    43. Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1042-1054.
    44. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    45. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents’ expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," AQR Working Papers 201508, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Mar 2015.
    46. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2011. "Quantifying survey expectations: What's wrong with the probability approach?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-485, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    47. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(2), pages 192-220, June.
    48. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
    49. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    50. Klein, Lawrence R. & Özmucur, Süleyman, 2010. "The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1453-1462, November.
    51. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    52. Pablo Castellanos García & Indalecio Pérez Díaz del Río & Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos, 2014. "The role of confidence in the evolution of the Spanish economy: empirical evidence from an ARDL model," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161, December.
    53. Kjetil Martinsen & Francesco Ravazzolo & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2011. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," Working Paper 2011/04, Norges Bank.
    54. Mohd Haniff, NorAzza & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia? an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach," MPRA Paper 69769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
    56. Maria Rita Ippoliti & Fabiana Sartor & Luigi Martone, 2021. "Trade surveys: qualitative and quantitative indicators," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 75(4), pages 75-85, October-D.
    57. Nikolay Robinzonov & Gerhard Tutz & Torsten Hothorn, 2012. "Boosting techniques for nonlinear time series models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(1), pages 99-122, January.
    58. Inna S. Lola & Anton Manukov, 2020. "Forecasting Employment In Small Businesses In Russia: The Relevance Of Business Tendency Surveys," HSE Working papers WP BRP 113/STI/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    59. G. Bruno & L. Crosilla & P. Margani, 2019. "Inspecting the Relationship Between Business Confidence and Industrial Production: Evidence on Italian Survey Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, April.
    60. Caperna, Giulio & Colagrossi, Marco & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca, 2022. "A babel of web-searches: Googling unemployment during the pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    61. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    62. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    63. Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2020. "Economic forecasting with evolved confidence indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 576-585.
    64. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2021. ""Nowcasting and forecasting GDP growth with machine-learning sentiment indicators"," IREA Working Papers 202103, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2021.

  3. O Claveria & E Pons & J Surinach, 2006. "Quantification of Expectations. Are They Useful for Forecasting Inflation?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(2), pages 19-38, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan G Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucia I Rosich, 2021. "On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1970-1982.
    2. Petar Soric & Mateo Zokalj & Marija Logarusic, 2020. "Economic determinants of Croatian consumer confidence: real estate prices vs. macroeconomy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 18(2B), pages 240-257.
    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming”," AQR Working Papers 201706, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2017.
    4. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    5. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2015. "Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever," Working Paper 15-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," IREA Working Papers 201320, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    7. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents’ expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," AQR Working Papers 201508, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Mar 2015.
    8. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
    10. Werner Hölzl & Gerhard Schwarz, 2014. "Der WIFO-Konjunkturtest: Methodik und Prognoseeigenschaften," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(12), pages 835-850, December.

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