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Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia? an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mohd Haniff, NorAzza
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine the nature of relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending in the Malaysian context. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed to test this relationship, controlling for information in other financial and economic indicators. The stability of the functions is tested by CUSUM and CUSUMQ and no structural break was found. Overall, the results show that the Consumer Sentiment Index does not have any predictive value on consumer spending either in the shortrun or in the long-run, although a cointegrating relationship exists between the variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohd Haniff, NorAzza & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia? an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach," MPRA Paper 69769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69769
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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