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Forecasting Components of Consumption with Components of Consumer Sentiment

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  • James A Wilcox

Abstract

We present new evidence that existing, but long-ignored, measures of consumer sentiment can reduce errors in forecasting total consumption expenditures and its components. The component questions of the aggregate Index of Consumer sentiment improve forecasts, not only of consumer expenditures on durables but also on non-durables and services. Empirical studies have historically focused on whether consumer sentiment improves one-quarterahead forecasts of consumer expenditures. In fact, we document that measures of consumer sentiment are especially predictive at the longer, four-quarter-ahead horizon. In addition, they typically contribute at least as much to one-quarter-ahead and four-quarter-ahead forecasts of consumption as do income and wealth variables. Out-ofsample forecasts for the 2000-2005 period further substantiate that measures of consumer sentiment can reduce consumption forecasting errors appreciably.Business Economics (2007) 42, 22–32; doi:10.2145/20070403

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  • James A Wilcox, 2007. "Forecasting Components of Consumption with Components of Consumer Sentiment," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 22-32, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:42:y:2007:i:4:p:22-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Hector H. Sandoval & Anita N. Walsh, 2021. "The role of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption, evidence from Florida," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 757-788, October.
    2. Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2021. "Onlinedaten und Konsumentscheidungen: Voraussagen anhand von Daten aus Social Media und Suchmaschinen," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie, volume 6, pages 157-172, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Chen, Zhongdong & Daves, Phillip R., 2018. "The January sentiment effect in the U.S. stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 94-104.
    4. Juan Yao & Graham Partington & Max Stevenson, 2013. "Predicting the directional change in consumer sentiment," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 67-80, April.
    5. Francisco B. Galarza & Fernando Requejo, 2019. "Reducing Informality Using Two-Sided Incentives: Theory and Experiment," Working Papers 149, Peruvian Economic Association.
    6. Robert Gausden & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2016. "Would information on consumer confidence have helped to predict UK household expenditure during the recent economic crisis?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(18), pages 1695-1709, April.
    7. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    8. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
    9. James A. Wilcox, 2008. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun27.
    10. Euler Pereira G. de Mello & Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo, 2014. "Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices," Working Papers Series 371, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. César Carrera, 2018. "Estimación del Consumo a partir de sus Componentes Principales en la Tabla Insumo-Producto," Working Papers 129, Peruvian Economic Association.
    12. Mohd Haniff, NorAzza & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia? an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach," MPRA Paper 69769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.
    14. Gabe J. Bondt & Stefano Schiaffi, 2015. "Confidence Matters for Current Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area and the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1027-1040, December.

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