An Analysis of Firms’ Expectations about Activity and Employment
This paper uses individual firm data from the Cyprus Business Surveys for the period May 2009 - April 2011 to assess the extent to which expectations about activity and employment stated in a given month agree with realisations reported by the same firms in subsequent Surveys. The results show that the probability of a firm stating expectations that are consistent with future realisations varies systematically with firm-specific characteristics such as size, district and subsector of operation. The heterogeneity in this probability can be viewed as a description of the shocks experienced ex post by different types of firms
Volume (Year): 5 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
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- Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
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- Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011.
"Sectoral Survey‐based Confidence Indicators for Europe,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 175-206, 04.
- Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Sectoral Survey-based Confidence Indicators for Europe," Working Papers 320, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Bob McNabb & Karl Taylor, 2002.
"Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence from Europe,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
02/3, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04.
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