IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v53y2021i7p1629-1675.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts

Author

Listed:
  • JASON P. BROWN

Abstract

Consumer debt is an important vehicle for smoothing through income shocks. I study localized income shocks from oil and gas development to investigate consumer response. Using quarterly information on consumer debt and oil and gas activity between 2000 and 2016, I find that consumer debt increased at a peak of $660 per capita, equivalent to 1.3% of median household income in counties with shale endowment and increased drilling. Shocks to local wages via drilling revealed a marginal propensity to borrow of 0.45. Relative to areas with oil and gas development experience, the marginal propensity to borrow was two times larger in previously undeveloped areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason P. Brown, 2021. "Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1629-1675, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:7:p:1629-1675
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12842
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12842
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12842?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jason P. Brown & Timothy Fitzgerald & Jeremy G. Weber, 2019. "Does Resource Ownership Matter? Oil and Gas Royalties and the Income Effect of Extraction," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1039-1064.
    2. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2015. "The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3633-3659, December.
    3. Munasib, Abdul & Rickman, Dan S., 2015. "Regional economic impacts of the shale gas and tight oil boom: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1998. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 26-60, January.
    5. Peter Kuhn & Peter Kooreman & Adriaan Soetevent & Arie Kapteyn, 2011. "The Effects of Lottery Prizes on Winners and Their Neighbors: Evidence from the Dutch Postcode Lottery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2226-2247, August.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    7. Grant D. Jacobsen, 2019. "Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 9-32, January.
    8. Disney, Richard & Gathergood, John, 2009. "Housing wealth, liquidity constraints and self-employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 79-88, January.
    9. Erik Hurst & Annamaria Lusardi, 2004. "Liquidity Constraints, Household Wealth, and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 319-347, April.
    10. Maniloff, Peter & Mastromonaco, Ralph, 2017. "The local employment impacts of fracking: A national study," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 62-85.
    11. McCollum, Meagan & Upton, Gregory B., 2018. "Local labor market shocks and residential mortgage payments: Evidence from shale oil and gas booms," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 162-197.
    12. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates-Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 986-1019, December.
    13. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & David Joulfaian & Harvey S. Rosen, 1994. "Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 334-347, Summer.
    14. Guido W. Imbens & Donald B. Rubin & Bruce I. Sacerdote, 2001. "Estimating the Effect of Unearned Income on Labor Earnings, Savings, and Consumption: Evidence from a Survey of Lottery Players," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 778-794, September.
    15. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    16. Agerton, Mark & Hartley, Peter R. & Medlock, Kenneth B. & Temzelides, Ted, 2017. "Employment impacts of upstream oil and gas investment in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 171-180.
    17. Alexander W. Bartik & Janet Currie & Michael Greenstone & Christopher R. Knittel, 2019. "The Local Economic and Welfare Consequences of Hydraulic Fracturing," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 105-155, October.
    18. Balthrop, Andrew T. & Hawley, Zackary, 2017. "I can hear my neighbors' fracking: The effect of natural gas production on housing values in Tarrant County, TX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 351-362.
    19. Brian C. Cadena & Brian K. Kovak, 2016. "Immigrants Equilibrate Local Labor Markets: Evidence from the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 257-290, January.
    20. John D. Benjamin & Peter Chinloy & G. Donald Jud, 2004. "Real Estate Versus Financial Wealth in Consumption," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 341-354, November.
    21. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    22. Raghuram Rajan & Rodney Ramcharan, 2015. "The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis: The Boom and Bust in Farm Land Prices in the United States in the 1920s," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1439-1477, April.
    23. Joseph Marchand & Jeremy G. Weber, 2020. "How Local Economic Conditions Affect School Finances, Teacher Quality, and Student Achievement: Evidence from the Texas Shale Boom," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 36-63, January.
    24. Paredes, Dusan & Komarek, Timothy & Loveridge, Scott, 2015. "Income and employment effects of shale gas extraction windfalls: Evidence from the Marcellus region," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 112-120.
    25. Rickman, Dan S. & Wang, Hongbo & Winters, John V., 2017. "Is shale development drilling holes in the human capital pipeline?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 283-290.
    26. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, September.
    27. Joseph Marchand & Jeremy Weber, 2018. "Local Labor Markets And Natural Resources: A Synthesis Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 469-490, April.
    28. Wang, Zhongmin & Krupnick, Alan, 2013. "A Retrospective Review of Shale Gas Development in the United States: What Led to the Boom?," RFF Working Paper Series dp-13-12, Resources for the Future.
    29. Steffen Andersen & Kasper Meisner Nielsen, 2012. "Ability or Finances as Constraints on Entrepreneurship? Evidence from Survival Rates in a Natural Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3684-3710.
    30. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2003. "Consumer Response to Tax Rebates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 381-396, March.
    31. Jason Brown, 2014. "Production of natural gas from shale in local economies: a resource blessing or curse?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 1-29.
    32. Komarek, Timothy M., 2016. "Labor market dynamics and the unconventional natural gas boom: Evidence from the Marcellus region," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    33. Weber, Jeremy G., 2012. "The effects of a natural gas boom on employment and income in Colorado, Texas, and Wyoming," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1580-1588.
    34. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2009. "Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 374-379, May.
    35. Jeremy G. Weber & J. Wesley Burnett & Irene M. Xiarchos, 2016. "Broadening Benefits from Natural Resource Extraction: Housing Values and Taxation of Natural Gas Wells as Property," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 587-614, June.
    36. Sumit Agarwal & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4205-4230, December.
    37. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Neale Mahoney & Johannes Stroebel, 2018. "Do Banks Pass through Credit Expansions to Consumers Who want to Borrow?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 129-190.
    38. Brown, Jason P. & Fitzgerald, Timothy & Weber, Jeremy G., 2016. "Capturing rents from natural resource abundance: Private royalties from U.S. onshore oil & gas production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-38.
    39. Robert W. Fairlie & Harry A. Krashinsky, 2012. "Liquidity Constraints, Household Wealth, And Entrepreneurship Revisited," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(2), pages 279-306, June.
    40. Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September.
    41. Elizabeth U. Cascio & Ayushi Narayan, 2022. "Who Needs a Fracking Education? The Educational Response to Low-Skill-Biased Technological Change," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(1), pages 56-89, January.
    42. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185.
    43. Boslett, Andrew & Guilfoos, Todd & Lang, Corey, 2016. "Valuation of expectations: A hedonic study of shale gas development and New York’s moratorium," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-30.
    44. Weber, Jeremy G., 2014. "A decade of natural gas development: The makings of a resource curse?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-183.
    45. Brian K. Kovak, 2013. "Regional Effects of Trade Reform: What Is the Correct Measure of Liberalization?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1960-1976, August.
    46. James Feyrer & Erin T. Mansur & Bruce Sacerdote, 2017. "Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1313-1334, April.
    47. Scott Ross Baker & Contantine Yannelis, 2017. "Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 99-124, January.
    48. Grant D. Jacobsen & Dominic P. Parker, 2016. "The Economic Aftermath of Resource Booms: Evidence from Boomtowns in the American West," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(593), pages 1092-1128, June.
    49. Hunt Allcott & Daniel Keniston, 2018. "Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 695-731.
    50. Sathya Gopalakrishnan & H. Allen Klaiber, 2014. "Is the Shale Energy Boom a Bust for Nearby Residents? Evidence from Housing Values in Pennsylvania," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(1), pages 43-66.
    51. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:12:p:3684-3710 is not listed on IDEAS
    52. Jason Brown & Timothy Fitzgerald & Jeremy G. Weber, 2016. "Asset Ownership, Windfalls, and Income: Evidence from Oil and Gas Royalties," Research Working Paper RWP 16-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brian E. Whitacre & Dylan L. Johnston & David W. Shideler & Notie H. Lansford, 2020. "The influence of oil and natural gas employment on local retail spending: evidence from Oklahoma panel data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 64(1), pages 133-157, February.
    2. Cookson, J. Anthony & Gilje, Erik P. & Heimer, Rawley Z., 2022. "Shale shocked: Cash windfalls and household debt repayment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 905-931.
    3. Daniel Berkowitz & Andrew J. dup Boslett & Jason Brown & Jeremy G. Weber, 2022. "Rational but Not Prescient: Borrowing during the Fracking Boom," Research Working Paper RWP 2022-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Chen, Jianyu & Zhang, Jianshun, 2023. "Crude oil price shocks, volatility spillovers, and global systemic financial risk transmission mechanisms: Evidence from the stock and foreign exchange markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    5. Allen N. Berger & Onesime Epouhe & Raluca Roman, 2021. "A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt," Working Papers 21-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason P. Brown & Timothy Fitzgerald & Jeremy G. Weber, 2019. "Does Resource Ownership Matter? Oil and Gas Royalties and the Income Effect of Extraction," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1039-1064.
    2. Joseph Marchand & Jeremy Weber, 2018. "Local Labor Markets And Natural Resources: A Synthesis Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 469-490, April.
    3. Rickman, Dan & Wang, Hongbo, 2020. "What goes up must come down? The recent economic cycles of the four most oil and gas dominated states in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Keeler, Zachary T. & Stephens, Heather M., 2020. "Valuing shale gas development in resource-dependent communities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Unel, Bulent & Upton, Gregory B., 2023. "Oil & gas induced economic fluctuations and self-employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Jason Brown & Timothy Fitzgerald & Jeremy G. Weber, 2016. "Asset Ownership, Windfalls, and Income: Evidence from Oil and Gas Royalties," Research Working Paper RWP 16-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Upton, Gregory B. & Yu, Han, 2021. "Labor demand shocks and earnings and employment differentials: Evidence from the U.S. shale oil & gas boom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Marchand, Joseph & Weber, Jeremy, 2017. "The Local Effects of the Texas Shale Boom on Schools, Students, and Teachers," Working Papers 2017-12, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2019.
    9. Guettabi, Mouhcine & James, Alexander, 2020. "Who benefits from an oil boom? Evidence from a unique Alaskan data set," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Kangil Lee & Brian Whitacre, 2021. "A Study on the Impact of Unconventional (and Conventional) Drilling on Housing Prices in Central Oklahoma," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Rickman, Dan S. & Wang, Hongbo, 2018. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? A Case Study of the Recent Oil and Gas Employment Cycle in Louisiana, North Dakota and Oklahoma," MPRA Paper 87252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Wang, Haoying, 2020. "The economic impact of oil and gas development in the Permian Basin: Local and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Katie Jo Black & Shawn J. McCoy & Jeremy G. Weber, 2018. "When Externalities Are Taxed: The Effects and Incidence of Pennsylvania’s Impact Fee on Shale Gas Wells," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 107-153.
    14. Watson, Brett & Reimer, Matthew N. & Guettabi, Mouhcine & Haynie, Alan, 2021. "Commercial fisheries & local economies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    15. Grant D. Jacobsen, 2019. "Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 9-32, January.
    16. Karen Maguire & John V. Winters, 2017. "Energy Boom and Gloom? Local Effects of Oil and Natural Gas Drilling on Subjective Well†Being," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 590-610, December.
    17. Hess, Joshua H. & Manning, Dale T. & Iverson, Terry & Cutler, Harvey, 2019. "Uncertainty, learning, and local opposition to hydraulic fracturing," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-123.
    18. Hoy, Kyle A. & Xiarchos, Irene M. & Kelsey, Timothy W. & Brasier, Kathryn J. & Glenna, Leland L., 2018. "Marcellus Shale Gas Development and Farming," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 634-664, December.
    19. Winters, John V. & Cai, Zhengyu & Maguire, Karen & Sengupta, Shruti, 2019. "Do Workers Benefit from Resource Booms in Their Home State? Evidence from the Fracking Era," GLO Discussion Paper Series 400, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    20. Weinstein, Amanda L. & Partridge, Mark D. & Tsvetkova, Alexandra, 2018. "Follow the money: Aggregate, sectoral and spatial effects of an energy boom on local earnings," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 196-209.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:7:p:1629-1675. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.