MERCOSUR enlargement: predicting the effects on trade in primary agricultural commodities
This article estimates the effects of a hypothetical enlargement of the Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR), depicted by granting MERCOSUR associate member countries a full membership status, on trade in primary agricultural commodities. The empirical investigation is implemented through the multiplicative form of the gravity model. The estimated gravity parameters are used to carry out scenarios that predict the effects of MERCOSUR enlargement on trade in primary agricultural commodities. The predictions reveal that MERCOSUR enlargement would generate significant increases in exports from the full members to the associate members. The predictions also show relatively smaller increases in exports from the associate members to the full members (in value terms), but some important increases in trade among the associate members. Trade diversion effects of MERCOSUR enlargement, which influence trade between full members and from non-member countries to full and associate members, are found to be limited. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 46 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/development/journal/10644/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Sousa, J. & Mayer, T. & Zignago, S., 2011.
"Market access in global and regional trade,"
358, Banque de France.
- de Sousa, José & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "Market Access in Global and Regional Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 9085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- De Sousa, José & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "Market Access in Global and Regional Trade," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1201, CEPREMAP.
- De Sousa, Jose & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2011. "Market access in global and regional trade," MPRA Paper 35602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2005. "Market Access in Global and Regional Trade," Working Papers 2005-02, CEPII research center.
- Soledad Zignago & Thierry Mayer, 2005. "Market Access in Global and Regional Trade," Sciences Po publications 2005-02, Sciences Po.
- Huiwen Lai & Susan Chun Zhu, 2004. "The determinants of bilateral trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 459-483, May.
- Won Chang & Winters, L. Alan, 1999.
"How regional blocs affect excluded countries - the price effects of MERCOSUR,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2157, The World Bank.
- Won Chang & L. Alan Winters, 2002. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 889-904, September.
- Chang, Won & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR," CEPR Discussion Papers 2179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Krinsky, Itzhak & Robb, A Leslie, 1986. "On Approximating the Statistical Properties of Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 715-19, November.
- Pascal L. Ghazalian & Bruno Larue & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2011. "Assessing the implications of regional preferential market access for meat commodities," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 292-310, 06.
- Jane Korinek & Mark Melatos, 2009. "Trade Impacts of Selected Regional Trade Agreements in Agriculture," OECD Trade Policy Papers 87, OECD Publishing.
- Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2004. "Economic and Geographical Distance: Explaining Mercosur Sectoral Exports to the EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 291-314, 07.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
- Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas, 2004. "MERCOSUR-European Union Trade: How important is EU Trade Liberalisation for MERCOSUR's Exports?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 30, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005.
"The Log of Gravity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Pedro E. Moncarz & Marcel Vaillant, . "MERCOSUR’s role on the regional patterns of imports of its country members: a dynamic panel data approach," Discussion Papers 07/27, University of Nottingham, GEP.
- Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, 08.
- Winters, L. Alan & Amjadi, Azita, 1999.
"Transport Costs and “Natural” Integration in Mercosur,"
Journal of Economic Integration,
Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 497-521.
- Amjadi, Azita & Winters, L. Alan, 1997. "Transport costs and"natural"integration in Mercosur," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1742, The World Bank.
- Štefan Bojnec & Imre Fertő, 2012. "Does EU Enlargement Increase Agro-Food Export Duration?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 609-631, 05.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 291-316, November.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
NBER Working Papers
8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- David Lambert & Shahera McKoy, 2009. "Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 17-39.
- Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost & Helena Marques, 2006. "A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path-dependency in Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 1077-1089, 08.
- Helena Marques, 2011. "Asymmetries in heterogeneous integrated areas: Evidence from sectoral trade between old and new EU members," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 5-29.
- Lin Sun & Michael R. Reed, 2010. "Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Agricultural Trade Creation and Trade Diversion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1351-1363.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:46:y:2013:i:3:p:277-297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.