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Climate Disaster Risks—Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model


  • Stefan Mittnik

    (Department of Institut für Statistik, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany)

  • Willi Semmler

    (New School for Social Research, New York, NY 10011, USA
    Senior Research Associate, IIASA, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Alexander Haider

    (New School for Social Research, New York, NY 10011, USA)


Recent research in financial economics has shown that rare large disasters have the potential to disrupt financial sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often entail negative feedback effects on the macroeconomy. Research on disaster risks has also actively been pursued in the macroeconomic models of climate change. Our paper uses insights from the former work to study disaster risks in the macroeconomics of climate change and to spell out policy needs. Empirically, the link between carbon dioxide emission and the frequency of climate related disaster is investigated using a panel data approach. The modeling part then uses a multi-phase dynamic macro model to explore the effects of rare large disasters resulting in capital losses and rising risk premia. Our proposed multi-phase dynamic model, incorporating climate-related disaster shocks and their aftermath as a distressed phase, is suitable for studying mitigation and adaptation policies as well as recovery policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Mittnik & Willi Semmler & Alexander Haider, 2020. "Climate Disaster Risks—Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-27, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p:33-:d:400531

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    Cited by:

    1. Ar'anzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela & Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," Papers 2206.03187,, revised Jun 2022.
    2. Andreas Breitenfellner & Wolfgang Pointner & Helene Schuberth, 2019. "The Potential Contribution of Central Banks to Green Finance," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 88(2), pages 55-71.

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    More about this item


    climate economics; disaster risk; macro feedback; multi-phase macro model; monetary and financial policies; environmental economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs


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