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Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

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  • Bergin, Adele
  • Economides, Philip
  • Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian
  • Murphy, Gavin

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Suggested Citation

  • Bergin, Adele & Economides, Philip & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian & Murphy, Gavin, 2019. "Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:qecsas:2019:spring:bergin
    DOI: /10.26504/qec2019spr_sa_bergin
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sampson, Thomas, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Monique Ebell, 2016. "Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 238(1), pages 31-42, November.
    3. Thomas Conefrey & Gerard O'Reilly & Graeme Walsh, 2018. "Modelling External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244(1), pages 56-63, May.
    4. Adele Bergin & Abian Garcia-Rodriguez & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth & Donal Smith, 2017. "Modelling the Medium- to Long-Term Potential Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit on Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 305-316.
    5. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mejean, 2017. "Trade Elasticities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 383-402, May.
    6. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," CESifo Working Paper Series 6668, CESifo.
    7. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Glen R. Waddell & Helen T. Naughton, 2019. "FDI in Space: Spatial Autoregressive Relationships in Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 2, pages 55-88, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2017. "Ireland’s international trade and transport connections," Papers WP573, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," CEP Discussion Papers dp1499, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & David Haugh & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Donal Smith & Frank van Tongeren & Ben Westmore, 2018. "The Potential Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Brexit on Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1508, OECD Publishing.
    11. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Peter Egger & Patrick A. McLaughlin, 2008. "Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 461-497, April.
    12. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    13. Rafal Kierzenkowski & Peter Gal & Gabor Fulop & Dorothee Flaig & Frank van Tongeren, 2018. "Sectoral and regional distribution of export shocks: What do two hundred thousand UK firm observations say?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1501, OECD Publishing.
    14. Wen Chen & Bart Los & Philip McCann & Raquel Ortega‐Argilés & Mark Thissen & Frank van Oort, 2018. "The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 25-54, March.
    15. Dhingra, Swati & Sampson, Thomas, 2016. "Life after Brexit : what are the UK’s options outside the European union?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66143, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    18. repec:cep:cepbxt:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, december.
    20. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    21. Arno Hantzsche & Amit Kara & Garry Young, 2019. "The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 5-20, January.
    22. Erik Marel & Ben Shepherd, 2013. "Services Trade, Regulation and Regional Integration: Evidence from Sectoral Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1393-1405, November.
    23. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John & Lambert, Derek & McCoy, Daire & Morgenroth,Edgar & Siedschlag, Iulia & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2015. "Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS48.
    24. Janet Ceglowski, 2006. "Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 307-329, July.
    25. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    26. Sampson, Thomas, 2017. "Brexit: the economics of international disintegration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86591, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Donal Smith & Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & Frank van Tongeren, 2018. "The potential economic impact of Brexit on the Netherlands," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1518, OECD Publishing.
    28. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Macroeconomic Impact," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 5, pages 49-74, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    29. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Marina Steininger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2018. "Quantifying Brexit: From Ex Post to Ex Ante Using Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 7357, CESifo.
    30. Olivier Cadot & Julien Gourdon & Frank van Tongeren, 2018. "Estimating Ad Valorem Equivalents of Non-Tariff Measures: Combining Price-Based and Quantity-Based Approaches," OECD Trade Policy Papers 215, OECD Publishing.
    31. Byrne, Stephen & Rice, Jonathan, 2018. "Non-Tariff Barriers and Goods Trade: a Brexit Impact Analysis," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    32. Bala Ramasamy & Matthew Yeung, 2010. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 573-596, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daly, Luke & Lawless, Martina, 2020. "Examination of the Sectoral Overlap of Covid-19 and Brexit Shocks," Papers WP677, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2019. "Brexit Impacts: Opportunities for German-Irish Trade," MPRA Paper 96602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Martina Lawless, 2020. "Brexit and trade on the Island of Ireland," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 167(3), pages 95-119.
    4. Seamus McGuinness & Adele Bergin, 2020. "The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 781-812.
    5. Bercholz, Maxime & Bergin, Adele & Callan, Tim & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Keane, Claire, 2019. "A micro-macro economic analysis of pension auto-enrolment options," Papers WP640, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Busch, Berthold, 2019. "Brexit: Der Streit um die irische Grenze," IW-Kurzberichte 70/2019, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.

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